Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Goodland, KS

408 
WWUS53 KGLD 180206
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
906 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSC063-180216-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160618T0215Z/
GOVE KS-
906 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3870 10048 3885 10051 3894 10029 3883 10015
      3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 318DEG 21KT 3878 10028 

$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.

This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.

Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.

Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

For KGLD, vfr conditions currently expected through the period.
Will have to watch the next several hours as thunderstorm outflow
has just moved south across the area. This may spark thunderstorm
development near or over the terminal. Heavy rain and gusty winds
the primary threats but large hail cant be ruled out. After
midnight or so thunderstorm coverage expected to dissipate with
winds gradually becoming south/southeasterly and increasing in
speed during Saturday afternoon where gusts in the 25 to 30 mph
range possible.

For KMCK, scattered to numerous thunderstorms producing gusty
winds to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall producing ifr
visibilities possible through midnight or so before dissipating in
areal coverage. During the overnight hours into Saturday winds
gradually become east then southeast. Wind gusts in the 20-25kt
range possible at the very end of the taf period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181715-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016 /1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE LINE. PRIMARY
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD COMBINE WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND GST     MCCOOK                  40.20N 100.62W
06/17/2016  M72 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
641 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ004-180015-
NORTON KS-
641 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 640 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF PRAIRIE VIEW...OR 15 MILES EAST OF NORTON...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMENA AND CALVERT.

LAT...LON 3977 9981 4000 9977 4000 9966 3999 9962
      3978 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 098DEG 9KT 3989 9961

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
603 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             JENNINGS                39.68N 100.29W
06/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
737 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ014-015-180100-
THOMAS KS-SHERIDAN KS-
737 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 737 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MENLO...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF GRINNELL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRINNELL...ANGELUS AND SEGUIN.

LAT...LON 3913 10074 3928 10079 3935 10057 3913 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 337DEG 22KT 3925 10065

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ014-015-028-029-180130-
LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-THOMAS KS-SHERIDAN KS-
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GOVE...SOUTHEASTERN
THOMAS...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 753 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRINNELL...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKLEY...GRINNELL AND ANGELUS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 90.

LAT...LON 3901 10052 3901 10094 3923 10093 3924 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 351DEG 36KT 3906 10069

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
833 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ029-180200-
GOVE KS-
833 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 833 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF PENDENNIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GOVE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3870 10047 3893 10047 3894 10018 3890 10015
      3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 320DEG 27KT 3874 10027

024