Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.

This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.

Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.

Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016

For KGLD, vfr conditions currently expected through the period.
Will have to watch the next several hours as thunderstorm outflow
has just moved south across the area. This may spark thunderstorm
development near or over the terminal. Heavy rain and gusty winds
the primary threats but large hail cant be ruled out. After
midnight or so thunderstorm coverage expected to dissipate with
winds gradually becoming south/southeasterly and increasing in
speed during Saturday afternoon where gusts in the 25 to 30 mph
range possible.

For KMCK, scattered to numerous thunderstorms producing gusty
winds to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall producing ifr
visibilities possible through midnight or so before dissipating in
areal coverage. During the overnight hours into Saturday winds
gradually become east then southeast. Wind gusts in the 20-25kt
range possible at the very end of the taf period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181715-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016 /1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE LINE. PRIMARY
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD COMBINE WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ003-004-172330-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
618 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 618 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTON...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JENNINGS AND CLAYTON.

LAT...LON 3961 10007 3959 10030 3980 10032 3980 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 173DEG 13KT 3968 10020

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCCOOK                  40.20N 100.62W
06/17/2016                   RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FAST MOVING WATER WITH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. STORM
            DRAINS NOT ABLE TO KEEP UP.

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ003-180000-
DECATUR KS-
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 624 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OBERLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OBERLIN...KANONA...TRAER AND CEDAR BLUFFS.

LAT...LON 3975 10034 3975 10062 4000 10067 4000 10029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 173DEG 13KT 3984 10052

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
06/17/2016  M1.45 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.45 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN APPROXIMATELY AN HOUR AND A
            HALF.

&&

DTHEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ015-016-029-180000-
GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
628 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GOVE...SOUTHWESTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 628 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLLYER...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING
DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINTER...PARK AND SAINT PETER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND
113.

LAT...LON 3913 10001 3913 10015 3898 10015 3898 10042
      3925 10037 3925 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 098DEG 9KT 3910 10018

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND GST     MCCOOK                  40.20N 100.62W
06/17/2016  M72 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

&&

CLT