Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE 01Z-07Z TIME FRAME.

THE INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE AND
REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...KEEPING SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE
WITH THE THROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO ENVELOP THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE TWO KEY DISTURBANCES TO FOCUS ON ARE THE ONES MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

BEGINNING WITH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BENIGN WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DUE TO A
DRY AIRMASS AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SHALL LEAD TO COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS
TO HAVE A MUCH LARGE EFFECT.

ON MONDAY EVENING...A SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE
ANYTHING MAJOR. MINIMAL MUCAPE AND REMAINING DRY AIR INDICATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT ALL STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUE TO PUMP RICH MOISTURE IN. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE...THE
LOW LEVEL JET...MOISTURE RETURN AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO
KEPT THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW.

TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION
OF AN INCOMING DRYLINE...STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE THE STORMS
WILL FIRE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT THEY WILL BE. WITH THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW COMING IN AND A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
APPROPRIATELY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY INCLUDED
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS.

AFTER A COOL DOWN...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
KICKS OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER.
HOWEVER...IF A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD
BE FIRMLY IN THE SIGHTS FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
TUESDAY'S SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING THE MOST BUT THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK ALSO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. KGLD RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE PAST KMCK
AFTER 07Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
336 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-242145-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
336 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016 /436 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
902 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S BURLINGTON          39.26N 102.27W
04/23/2016  M50.00 MPH       KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

&&

FS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
917 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

KSZ001-013-027-240345-
WALLACE KS-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN KS-
917 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...CHEYENNE AND SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL
945 PM MDT/1045 PM CDT/...

AT 917 PM MDT/1017 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HAIGLER TO 3 MILES WEST OF KANORADO TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WESKAN.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOODLAND...ST. FRANCIS...SHARON SPRINGS...KANORADO...RULETON...WESKAN AND
WALLACE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 25.

LAT...LON 4000 10205 4000 10155 3870 10159 3870 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 228DEG 34KT 3989 10209 3935 10209 3878 10210

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

KSZ001-002-NEZ079-080-240430-
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
946 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN RAWLINS AND EASTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN DUNDY AND WESTERN
HITCHCOCK COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 1030 PM MDT/1130 PM
CDT/...

AT 946 PM MDT/1046 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF BENKELMAN
TO 3 MILES WEST OF BIRD CITY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENKELMAN...BIRD CITY...STRATTON...MCDONALD...MAX...BLAKEMAN AND
BEARDSLEY.

LAT...LON 4035 10111 3957 10103 3957 10160 4007 10168
      4035 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 218DEG 37KT 4004 10163 3974 10159

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
949 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

KSZ013-014-027-028-041-240430-
WALLACE KS-GREELEY KS-LOGAN KS-THOMAS KS-SHERMAN KS-
949 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE...NORTHERN GREELEY...
WESTERN THOMAS...WESTERN LOGAN AND EASTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 PM MDT/1130 PM CDT/...

AT 948 PM MDT/1048 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF GOODLAND TO
NEAR TOWNER. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS...TRIBUNE...BREWSTER...LEVANT...WESKAN AND
WINONA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 51.

LAT...LON 3865 10205 3940 10176 3957 10160 3957 10101
      3870 10140 3870 10157 3853 10158 3838 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 236DEG 42KT 3935 10159 3844 10205

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
952 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
04/23/2016  M63 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

FS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

KSZ041-042-240445-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
1031 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM MDT/1145 PM CDT/...

AT 1031 PM MDT/1131 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TRIBUNE TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HORACE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...SELKIRK...MARIENTHAL AND LYDIA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3868 10171 3870 10166 3870 10113 3827 10112
      3826 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 247DEG 38KT 3864 10164 3830 10159

DR