Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
322 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Early afternoon WV satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows upper
level ridging across the SW US. A shortwave trough is currently
centered over western KS with a weaker shortwave rotating over
eastern KS. At the surface a surface trough is approximately along
the CO/KS border extending into SW Nebraska, with SW flow across SW
Kansas into south central Nebraska.

This afternoon-evening: with forcing associated with shortwave
trough lingering potential exists for thunderstorm development.
Main CAPE axis is associated with moist surface layer in SW flow
with marginal CAPE values expected across our southeast. ML CIN is
in the process of weakening, so initiation s0ouc take place in region
of weak convergence. LCLs/LFCs are high with a high melting layer
associated with warm/dry adiabatic layer through approximately
700mb. Above this there is limited moisture advection. Drier and
more subsident air mass is in our northwest lowering confidence in
initiation in all but our NW Kansas counties where strongest precip
signal is in place. Due to the dry nature of the soundings coverage
should remain isolated to widely scattered. Main axis of forcing
transitions east this evening, and loss of daytime
heating/stabilization of the boundary layer should lead to any
lingering activity diminishing after sunset.

Due to the high bases, deep melting layer, and marginal CAPE values
in our CWA, confidence in severe hail is lower. On the other hand
DCAPE values in the 1500 J/KG range, and Inverted V soundings raises
concern for microburst potential.

Friday: H5 ridge will be centered roughly across our western CWA,
with large scale subsidence and an even drier air mass limiting any
thunderstorm potential. Bigger story will be the hot air mass in
place, with mean H85 temps at 30-31C range. Warmer guidance is even
higher. Warmest layer is actually in the 925mb layer with some
guidance showing temps around 37C (98F). With even minor bias
corrections the mean/consensus guidance shows highs in the upper
90s, and it is certainly possible for some locations to reach the
low 100s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Friday through Saturday remain hot and dry with the upper ridge
moving into place over the central United States and southerly
flow at the surface.
On Sunday, the upper ridge axis pushes east with a short wave
trough aloft lifting out across the central high plains ahead of
the main upper trough that starts progressing eastward into the
southwestern U.S. A surface trough also associated with the upper
wave moves east across the forecast area with a weak cold front to
follow overnight Sunday night. Temperatures on Monday will cool
somewhat, but will remain slightly above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s. The best chance of precipitation will be
Monday evening through Tuesday as the low over the southwest U.S.
lifts out across the Rockies and Central High Plains as an open
wave with another surface trough/front expected to move across the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler on
Tuesday as a result.

Wednesday and into Thursday look dry and hot again as short wave
ridging replaces the trough aloft with high pressure also
generally in place across the central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at both KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over
parts of NW Kansas this afternoon/evening, however
coverage/confidence is too low to include mention in TAFs at this
time. A low level jet around 40kt will develop east of KGLD and
should impact KMCK with low level wind shear 06-09z. Winds
overnight will increase at KGLD to the 12-14KT range before
diminishing as the LLJ slides east. Otherwise, with surface low
pressure near both terminals and gradient to the east southerly
winds should remain below 12kt most of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
947 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101600-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
947 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2016 /1047 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)
THROUGH THIS EVENING.