Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

807 
WWUS53 KGLD 160015
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COC125-160045-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160416T0045Z/
YUMA CO-
615 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY...

AT 614 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HAIGLER...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF WRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONNY RESERVOIR...HALE...IDALIA AND BEECHER ISLAND. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 209 AND 210...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 231.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 10205 3977 10205 3957 10215 3957 10220
      3965 10242 3989 10229 3993 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 204DEG 34KT 3987 10212 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JN

224 
WWUS53 KGLD 160039
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COC125-160049-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160416T0045Z/
YUMA CO-
639 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3988 10205 3977 10205 3957 10215 3957 10220
      3965 10242 3989 10229 3993 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 204DEG 34KT 3987 10212 

$$

TL JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 090 IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY...NEW
ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT

A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES THE MAIN SYSTEM. STORM MOTION
ALONG THE LINE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE HOWEVER TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. CAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 20Z
AT 1200 TO 2000 J/KG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH 0
TO 6KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND WILL
CONSIST OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE 0 TO 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVERTAKES IT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT TIMES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING A DRY
SLOT MOVING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS NEW FEATURE, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THOSE TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY POPS
WILL BE LOWERED SOME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL STILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN
COLORADO TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SINCE
THIS SNOW SHOULD COME TWO SEPARATE NIGHTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN, THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF MELTING AND SETTLING.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WITH LOW
AMOUNTS OF WET AND MELTING SNOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE
EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER
WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NEBRASKA.  A
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTING NIL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND WITH MID 50S TO LOWER
60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LINE OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 00Z
AND LATER AND KMCK LATER THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A LULL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A NEW SURGE OF
STORMS AFFECTING THE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161715-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 /1209 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS MAY PRODUCE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE
FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS AND DRY CREEK BEDS. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE
FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN LITTLE TO NO SNOW AND
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 NNE KIT CARSON        38.88N 102.73W
04/15/2016                   CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORT OF CREEK RUNNING GOOD WITH RUN OFF CROSS THE
            ROADS.

&&

BWARREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-152315-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
431 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 515
PM MDT/615 PM CDT/...

AT 430 PM MDT/530 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAIGLER...OR 11 MILES EAST OF WRAY...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAIGLER AND LAIRD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000
PM CDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4029 10173 3997 10194 4001 10215 4030 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 201DEG 37KT 4005 10201

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             5 ENE KIT CARSON        38.79N 102.71W
04/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 NNE BETHUNE           39.39N 102.37W
04/15/2016  M1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COZ092-160000-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
543 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 543 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 24 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3892 10291 3890 10257 3861 10266 3861 10269
      3863 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 185DEG 29KT 3870 10277

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             11 N BURLINGTON         39.47N 102.30W
04/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JMARTIN