Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Goodland, KS

822 
WWUS83 KGLD 211738
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... ...FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...

.HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...PRODUCING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF EACH DAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONGER WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

COZ253-KSZ013-220000-
/O.EXA.KGLD.FW.W.0012.160321T1800Z-160322T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0010.160322T1800Z-160323T0000Z/
KIT CARSON-SHERMAN-
1138 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013 AND
253...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013 AND
253...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT 
  CARSON. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

KSZ001-220000-
/O.EXA.KGLD.FW.W.0012.160321T1800Z-160322T0000Z/
CHEYENNE KS-
1238 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

COZ252-NEZ079-220000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0012.160321T1800Z-160322T0000Z/
YUMA-DUNDY-
1138 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 079 AND
252...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA. IN 
  NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

COZ254-KSZ014-027>029-041-042-220000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0010.160322T1800Z-160323T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
1138 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 /1238 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014...027...
028...029...041...042 AND 254...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE 
  CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014 THOMAS...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 027 WALLACE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

311 
WWUS83 KGLD 220005
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016


COZ253-KSZ013-221200-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160322T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0010.160322T1800Z-160323T0000Z/
KIT CARSON-SHERMAN-
605 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013 AND 253...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013 AND 253...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT 
  CARSON. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ252-KSZ001-NEZ079-220115-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160322T0000Z/
YUMA-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY-
605 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 /705 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...079 AND 252...

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

$$

COZ254-KSZ014-027>029-041-042-221200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0010.160322T1800Z-160323T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
605 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 /705 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
014...027...028... 029...041...042 AND 254...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE 
  CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014 THOMAS...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 027 WALLACE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SSW SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
REGION HAS ALLOWED HIGHS TO REBOUND TO MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME
LOCALES NEAR 50F. COOLEST SPOTS IN THE CWA ARE POINTS EAST WHERE
CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE...AND THUS LESS WIND. ALL AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES ONTO CURRENT TEMPS BEFORE COOL
DOWN OCCURS TOWARDS SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE/LEE SIDE TROUGH COMBO REMAINS TO OUR
EAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...KEEPING A SSW GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...WITH
A RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F IN SOME LOCALES.

GOING INTO MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE LEE-SIDE TROUGH WORKS EAST OFF THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE DAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW H5 RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE WEST. THE COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WIND CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL STRETCH INTO THE 18C TO 20C
RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS STEADY
FORECASTS AROUND 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND SEE NO REASON TO DIVERT FROM
GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORD NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AS THE
CURRENT RECORDS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AT LEAST AROUND 80F. HIGHS ARE COMPLICATED BY
SHIFT IN SURFACE TROUGH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COULD APPROACH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA
WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION BAND FORMING ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL
GUIDANCE NOW TO BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND
TEMP PROFILES BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN AND INTRODUCED A NON STANDARD DIURNAL
HOURLY TEMP CURVE (FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS). STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A STRONG LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS WHICH
COULD COMBINE WITH MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A SHORT LIVED/INTENSE/QUICK
SHOT OF WINTER WEATHER. WE ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT THERE IS AN
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY DESPITE THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS. GOING FORWARD
THIS IS A PERIOD WE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO CONSIDER WITHER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...NW FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THESE PERIODS WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM THAT POINT FORWARD. BASED ON THE
CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE WOULD SEE A
LOT OF PRECIP BUT THE PRECIP SIGNAL IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND PATTERN
CHANGE IS WORTH KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 11KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 17Z AND GUST AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KTS
THROUGH 22Z-23Z BEFORE SETTLING BACK BELOW 12KTS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY PERIODIC INCREASES IN CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

FOR MONDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP
OFF NEAR THE 20 MPH RANGE. ALTHOUGH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
GOING TO BE PRESENT...NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DUE
TO THE LACK OF THE STRONG WIND CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...LOW TDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO OCCUR WE WOULD HAVE TO MIX
700MB TO ACHIEVE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR RFW. THERE IS ALSO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING OPAQUE CLOUD COVER.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...JN/DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-212100-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
300 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 /400 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOR MONDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN COLORADO AND KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WINTER STORM MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.