Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Grand Junction, CO

835 
WGUS75 KGJT 222243
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

COC045-230015-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160723T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GARFIELD CO-
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY...

AT 442 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  SOME MINOR ROCK AND MUDSLIDES
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 10781 3962 10773 3958 10780 3969 10790

$$

TGR

598 
WGUS75 KGJT 230009
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
609 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

COC045-230019-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160723T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GARFIELD CO-
609 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3972 10781 3962 10773 3958 10780 3969 10790

$$

EH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
245 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

This afternoon, moisture remains deep but has eroded somewhat.
There are two disturbances helping to enhance thunderstorms. Weak
sheared energy over the south helped storms fire there first this
early afternoon. Storms across the south and central have a slow
storm motion to the ENE at 5-10mph. These storms are showing a
tendency to hug the higher terrain and thus could produce locally
heavy rain. Some areas have saturated soils, such as along hwy 145
between Placerville and Telluride. Crested Butte area too got
over an inch of rain Thursday afternoon. The second disturbance is
tracking W-E across the north this evening. These storms are in a
drier environment and are moving faster to the east at 10 mph. So
these storms threaten more wind but less threat of heavy rain
accumulations.

The forcing from the two disturbances all seems to end around
midnight tonight with subsidence into Saturday morning. Moisture
erodes further on Saturday with a disturbance timed to pass over
the north late afternoon into the evening. So chances of localized
flooding diminish but do not come to an end.

Afternoon temperatures remain about 8 degrees above normal while
morning lows will be above normal central and south, below normal
north in the drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The subtropical ridge will be centered over the Four Corners on
Sunday. This further limits available moisture, so late-day
convection will favor the southern and central high country.

Monday a Pacific trough works onshore and into the Great Basin.
The resulting SW flow helps moisture and late-day storm coverage to
increase a bit.

Tuesday the trough moves onto the High Plains and the ridge takes
full control of the region. This brings dry and warm conditions
with only isolated storms expected over the southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Scattered thunderstorm activity continues across the forecast area
through 03z threatening all TAF sites with brief MVFR conditions
in showers. Isolated storms could continue until 06z. Otherwise
VFR conditions dominate until 18z. Saturday afternoon
thunderstorms look to favor the north including KVEL.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
625 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-230030-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
625 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

CORRECTED FOR DUPLICATE WORD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAXIMIZED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH NORMALLY DRY WASHES FILLING
WITH WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE IMPACTED UNDER AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HEAVY RUNOFF AND PONDING
OF WATER ON THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL PUSH THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE EAST ON LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SIGNAL A GRADUAL
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TO MONITOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS.