Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Grand Junction, CO

787 
WGUS75 KGJT 220001
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

COC113-220115-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160722T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
601 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 600 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FEW MINOR MUDSLIDES
OVER CO 145 NEAR PLACERVILLE.  A FEW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS...MAY MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA KEEPING MUDSLIDE
POSSIBILITIES HIGH.  THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST
OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAWPIT...FALL CREEK AND PLACERVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL TRIGGERS ROCKSLIDES...MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN
STEEP TERRAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10805 3799 10797 3797 10800 3802 10808

$$

TGR

497 
WGUS75 KGJT 220111
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
711 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

COC113-220120-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160722T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
711 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 715 PM MDT...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS MUDSLIDES AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE ENDED IN
THE WARNED AREA.  THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3804 10805 3799 10797 3797 10800 3802 10808

$$

TGR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The monsoonal doldrums are in place. That is deep moisture is in
place and the steering flow is light. The subtle disturbance that
is driving our weather today is a disturbance near Meeker this
afternoon that is threatening heavy slow-moving showers. Storm
motion is to the northeast at 5 mph but storms are showing a
tendency to back build thus increasing the possibility of
localized flooding. This threat will end before sunset with the
loss of surface heating. Isolated storms could continue overnight
favoring the north and east.

Friday thunderstorm coverage looks to favor the Colorado central
and southern mountains with weak sheared vorticity forecasted
there through the afternoon. Once again isolated nocturnal storms
continue overnight. Afternoon temperatures will rise a few degrees
above normal...near normal for morning lows.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

By Saturday, the large scale pattern change begins. The Pacific
NW upper Low ejects through the northern Rockies while the
subtropical High also expands across the southern tier of states
into the SE Pacific. The flow across the north veers to dry west.
The latest forecasted afternoon winds do not reach critical fire
weather criteria. For the southern forecast area marginal moisture
lingers for isolated to scattered late-day storms favoring the
Abajo and San Juan Mountains.

Daytime temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal across the
north and central zones, 0-5 degrees above across the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Through 03z widespread thunderstorm coverage continues north of
I-70 with scattered coverage elsewhere mainly over higher
terrain. After 03z tonight isolated storms continue mainly across
the north with VFR conditions dominating. Scattered thunderstorms
reform Friday after 16z favoring the southern and central
mountains. Brief MVFR conditions are possible at KDRO KTEX KMTJ
KASE KEGE through the afternoon.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ002-003-005-
     007-008-013.

UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-221200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
354 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD IMPACT DRIVING CONDITIONS
AND PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RUNOFF. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES MAY BEGIN TO FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL PUSH THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE EAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SIGNAL A GRADUAL
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.