Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Grand Junction, CO

254 
WGUS75 KGJT 202258
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

COC113-210015-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160721T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
458 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 457 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MUD AND ROCKSLIDES
DUE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CO145 FROM PLACERVILLE
TO AREAS JUST EAST OF SAWPIT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN VILLAGE AND SAWPIT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL TRIGGERS ROCKSLIDES...MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN
STEEP TERRAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 10787 3792 10788 3797 10799 3801 10806
      3802 10805

$$

TGR

844 
WGUS55 KGJT 202359
FFWGJT
COC113-210615-
/O.EXT.KGJT.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160721T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
559 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...

* UNTIL 1215 AM MDT THURSDAY

* AT 556 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED ROCK AND
  MUDSLIDES FROM STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  THE SLIDES HAVE AFFECTED CO
  145 FROM PLACERVILLE TO THE EAST OF SAWPIT.  ONE LANE OF CO 145
  IS OPEN TO TRAFFIC.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAWPIT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL TRIGGERS ROCKSLIDES...MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN
STEEP TERRAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 10787 3792 10788 3797 10799 3801 10806
      3802 10805

$$

TGR

675 
WGUS75 KGJT 210301
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
901 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

COC113-210310-
/O.CAN.KGJT.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160721T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
901 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT AND CO 145 IS NOW OPEN IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS.

LAT...LON 3795 10787 3792 10788 3797 10799 3801 10806
      3802 10805

$$

TGR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1102 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The moisture plume remain in place with PWAT over an inch on the
KGJT RAOB at 00z and on ground sensors at KDRO. The radar however
is much cooler tonight with a strong downturn in convection after
midnight with out a strong trigger. This suggests a quieter start
to the day and did lower pops going into the noon hour. Models
still picking out a more distinct wave lifting north out of SW New
Mexico this morning. This feature looks to arrive to the 4 corners
late this afternoon and should provide some focus for storms to
survive into the late evening across our southern CWA. There also
appears to be some channelized vorticity riding the edge of the
moisture plume in southeast Utah that could also focus some storms
across the high plateaus into the northern mountains this
afternoon. Forecast seems to be on track and didn't make major
changes. All models a bit drier in our far northeast CWA and did
trend QPF and pops downward here. Not much of different story for
Thursday with PWAT still near an inch. Our moisture tap will begin
to be disrupted however by a subtle westward shift in the
subtropical high. Missed the high temperature forecast by nearly
10 degrees yesterday due to cloud cover and early morning
rainfall. A quieter start today and will go with highs near to
slightly above normal the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Through Friday, the moist SW flow continues. Both the more moist
NAM and the drier GFS keep precipitable water values over one inch.
No significant disturbances are resolved for now so a broad brush
monsoonal surge forecast continues. The southern and eastern portion
of the forecast area looks to be favored for showers.

By Saturday, the Pacific NW upper Low ejects through the northern
Rockies. This turns the upper flow from SW to a drier west. The
subtropical High also expands across the southern tier of states.
All of this brings a strong drying and warming trend to the
forecast area that continues into at least next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Light showers will continue across areas in the vicinity and north
of Interstate 70. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop
across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado initially and become
widespread across all areas this afternoon and continue this
evening. Some storm activity will continue through the overnight
hours with a disturbance moving through. Some storms will contain
brief moderate to heavy rainfall with temporary MVFR/IFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of airfields with gusty
erratic outflow winds possible as well.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...MDA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-211200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
340 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD IMPACT DRIVING
CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RUNOFF. LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES MAY BEGIN TO FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.