Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Generally zonal flow remains in place across the region, set up
between high pressure spread across the southern CONUS and various
disturbances located across the north. Been a dry afternoon
across the CWA, though radar showing some scattered thunderstorm
activity not too far off to the northwest. At the surface, the
pattern has been messy at times. Started out the day with variable
winds and plenty of cloud cover across the north. An outflow
boundary pushed south through the northern half of the CWA this
morning, bringing at least a temporary shift in winds out of the
north. More southeasterly winds have since returned to the
majority of the CWA, but a boundary remains in place across far
SWrn portions, with more southerly winds to its south. Speeds have
been stronger than expected, most locations are currently
sustained 15-20 MPH, with gusts near 25 MPH. A trough axis remains
draped south through the High Plains. As far as temperatures to,
looks like we are going to fall short of forecast highs for many
locations (esp across SC NE), thanks in part to more cloud cover
for some, higher dewpoints for others. 3 pm obs range from the
lower/mid 80s in the north to upper 90s in far southern areas.

Late today into tonight, thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast, and overall didn't make notable changes to the forecast.
A subtle shortwave disturbance is shown by models to continue
pushing east with time, with additional thunderstorms expected to
develop in proximity of the sfc trough to the west, though overall
coverage if things go is uncertain, with the SPC Meso page showing
700 MB temps pushing 14C. Should be aided later this evening by a
30ish kt LLJ nosing into the region. The better chances remain
across the western half of the CWA, with more uncertainty further
east. Potential for strong/marginally severe storms remains,
plenty of instability around, but deeper layer shear isn't the
greatest.

As we get into Tuesday, the main surface boundary that pushes
southeast tonight is roughly halfway through the CWA by mid
morning, continuing to sink south to near the NE/KS state line
around midday. Losing its push, the front is shown by most models
to stall out over far northern KS, remaining in that general area
well through Tuesday night. Upper level forcing is never the
greatest Tue/Tues night, but the front remains around our southern
counties, and as evening passes the LLJ picks back up - just can't
confidently dry any time period completely out. Did trim back the
northern extent of PoPs, confining them to south of Interstate 80.
With that front around, confidence in highs for tomorrow is not
high. Did trend back a bit in the north-northwest, where
northeasterly winds are expected all day. Further south winds may
end up being more light/variable. Current forecast highs range
from the upper 80s in the northwest to mid 90s further south.

Did keep Wednesday and Wednesday night dry, though there is some
suggestion that a bit of lingering activity could be around to
start the day. Forecast for Wed has been dry for a while, would
like to see more support from models before having to insert a
PoP. Aloft, focus is turning to the next notable upper level
disturbance, which during this period is sliding east across the
northern Rockies. Ahead of that disturbance, low pressure is
starting to become better organized to our west-northwest, with
winds turning more to the south with time as a warm front pushes
back north. Looks to be another warm day, with forecast highs in
the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Better chances for precipitation look to start working their way
in on Thursday, continuing right on through the upcoming
weekend.

Looking at the upper levels Thurs/Fri, that above mentioned upper
level system pushing east through the northern Rockies on
Wednesday will continue to do so. During the day Thursday the
center of the low is crossing just north of the Dakotas, before
working its way through Ontario toward the Hudson Bay area through
Friday. Generally zonal flow sets up in its wake, with periodic
shortwave disturbances potentially sliding right through the area.
At the surface, the Thurs/Fri system pushes another surface
frontal boundary south into the the region, once again stalling
out across the Central Plains as it loses its upper level push.
Models suggest that this frontal boundary will be lingering around
the area through the weekend and into Monday.

Between the surface boundary lingering around the area, periodic
disturbances moving through, as well as some lift via a passing
upper level jet streak, it's difficult to completely rule
precipitation chances out of any period. Also difficult to have an
abundance of confidence in timing/location, as how any
particular day plays out will be affected by what/if anything
occurs the day prior. Plenty of things to iron out in the coming
days, but the increased chances are encouraging.

Temperatures through this period will be driven by where that
surface boundary ends up and accompanying clouds/precip, but
potential for some highs in the 70s is there for a few days, esp
across portions of the area north of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The main aviation forecast concern tonight is the chances for
thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours. A secondary
point to watch is a front and associated wind shift moving through
during the day Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed west of the
terminals and both KEAR and KGRI could be impacted. Currently have
VCTS with confidence low for timing if/when they will be hit. Will
watch trends and amend if/when needed.

A front will move through early Tuesday causing the winds to
become northerly.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
030200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
858 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MINDEN
TO GRAND ISLAND TO FULLERTON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
ANY SPECIFICS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...BUT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
281.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
930 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NEZ082-020315-
FURNAS NE-
930 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM CDT...

AT 930 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WILSONVILLE...OR 42 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLDREGE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARAPAHOE...BEAVER CITY...WILSONVILLE AND HENDLEY.

LAT...LON 4026 10019 4032 9989 4006 9979 4003 10019
      4019 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 253DEG 7KT 4015 10009

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1013 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NEZ040-041-020400-
NANCE NE-GREELEY NE-
1013 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY AND
NORTHWESTERN NANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1013 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WOLBACH...OR 27 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOLBACH.

LAT...LON 4148 9829 4148 9814 4142 9812 4139 9827
      4140 9829 4139 9848 4153 9855 4163 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 251DEG 13KT 4147 9842

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1014 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NEZ040-020400-
GREELEY NE-
1014 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1014 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF GREELEY...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORD...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPALDING.

LAT...LON 4164 9829 4164 9875 4174 9875 4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 266DEG 22KT 4174 9867

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NEZ040-020445-
GREELEY NE-
1058 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

AT 1057 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT HARTSUFF
STATE PARK TO NEAR GREELEY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPALDING...GREELEY AND WOLBACH.

LAT...LON 4140 9829 4139 9848 4164 9875 4174 9875
      4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 254DEG 8KT 4183 9871 4156 9848

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NEZ040-020530-
GREELEY NE-
1159 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTHEAST GREELEY COUNTY...

AT 1158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF GREELEY...OR 28 MILES
EAST OF ORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPALDING...GREELEY AND SCOTIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 9829 4146 9870 4174 9875 4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 319DEG 10KT 4157 9839

KELLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NEZ041-020545-
NANCE NE-
1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NANCE COUNTY...

AT 1211 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN GREELEY AND
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

BELGRADE AROUND 1230 AM CDT.
FULLERTON AROUND 1245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9790 4130 9790 4129 9795 4129 9805
      4128 9806 4128 9810 4127 9810 4126 9827
      4139 9827 4139 9828 4148 9829 4148 9810
      4149 9810 4150 9804 4151 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 326DEG 18KT 4149 9824

KELLEY