Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Abbreviated AFD due to early start to severe weather this afternoon.
Severe storms have begun in full force across the area initial line
going up near the radar and extending east. This is well north of
the main surface boundary that extends from southwest KS to
southeast NE. Storms have also popped along the boundary to our
south in KS.

All ingredients in place with plenty of moisture as low 70 dewpoints
have advected as far north as CNK. Decent forcing with upper wave
now centered over four corners region and slowly churning east.
Current instability ranges from ml-CAPE values of near 4000 J/KG in
the southern CWA to 1000 in the far north.  Mid level lapse rates
impressive south of highway 30 ranging from 8-9 deg C.  Effective
bulk shear values of 40kt south CWA to 60 kt north.  Only thing
lacking at present are 0-1 km bulk shear values which are 10 kt or
less. Still, latest Sig Tor parameter values now in the 3-4 range
in the Tor Watch area so will need close monitoring. Large hail
parameters off the chart with the southern half of the CWA
currently exceeding 30, while northern CWA exceeding 14.

What all of that means is we are looking at a good setup for severe
thunderstorms with the main threat at present being very large to
giant size hail. Tornadoes also possible especially near and
along the boundary. Expect activity to continue into the evening
and overnight as more thunderstorms move in from the southwest.

Precipitation chances continue into Friday and while severe threat
won't be as high as it is today, it will still be possible until
main upper wave gets east of us.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled weather continues in the long term although we
do see a pattern change. Deep upper southwest U.S. low finally moves
to the east and by 00Z Saturday it should be near northwest KS, and
then move over our CWA on Sat as it opens into a wave. By 00Z Sunday
the upper trough axis should be to our east near the MO River
Valley. So Sat night and early Sun may not be as active although
chances return Sun night as a surface boundary once again hangs up
in the central Plains.

Another upper low is progged to move into the Pacific NW region
later on Sunday which should preclude any ridging over the Plains.
The earlier runs of the EC and GFS differed on the timing but they
do both move this system east across southern Canada. The latest run
of the GFS seems to be coming more into line with the EC. Our
thunderstorm chances should continue until that wave axis gets east
of our CWA. This could be as early as Wed but will just have to see
how system progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Expect tstm chances to continue off and on through the TAF period.
First round of storms have pushed east but more to follow as
activity moves in from the southwest overnight as main upper low
moves towards us from the four corners region. Also expect
ceilings to lower to IFR later tonight and remain until mid
morning.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
271200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
714 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

BEYOND FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             3 S WILCOX              40.32N 99.17W
05/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             3 S FUNK                40.42N 99.25W
05/26/2016  M0.88 INCH       PHELPS             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

PBEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
744 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ018-019-270130-
OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-
744 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND EASTERN
OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 743 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES EAST OF NATOMA...OR 39 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSBORNE...DOWNS...CAWKER CITY AND TIPTON.

LAT...LON 3918 9894 3957 9858 3957 9851 3945 9823
      3913 9867 3913 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 218DEG 36KT 3920 9877

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
844 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ007-019-270230-
JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-
844 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLEN ELDER TO 6 MILES EAST OF VICTOR.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...GLEN ELDER...JEWELL...ASHERVILLE...FORMOSO...SIMPSON...RANDALL...
SCOTTSVILLE AND MONTROSE.

LAT...LON 3922 9822 3957 9840 3997 9794 3924 9793
      3922 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 225DEG 37KT 3956 9831 3925 9815

JCB

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