Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
320 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could be
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning,
but there could be a little bit of a break during the late morning
hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area on Tuesday.
There is still a few differences in the models. The GFS and the NAM
both bring in some precipitation mid day into the afternoon hours,
but the WRF models are more dry during the afternoon. Have kept some
small POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This looks
to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but with
another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a chance
for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that move
through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of QPF
across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms. By
Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front moving
into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS is
faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF, but
there continue to be several upper level waves that move through the
area. Each wave has the potential to bring some thunderstorms, but
it will depend on the timing of the waves and what happens to the
surface front that tends to linger, getting stronger and weaker at
different times. Have kept chances for thunderstorms in through the
period, but it will not be raining all the time. It is just hard to
define just when there will be something going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Low clouds have moved into the KGRI terminal this afternoon and
should linger for a few hours. The main questions will be if and
when there will be shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and into the overnight hours. Have tried to hit the best times for
activity, but there are still a few questions on exactly when and
where there will be development.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO HASTINGS
NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY BEYOND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DETERMINE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY OCCUR IN SOME
AREAS...FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

NEZ048-062-232115-
MERRICK-HALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTRAL CITY...GRAND ISLAND
312 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT
AND A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS HALL AND MERRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS HALL AND MERRICK COUNTIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ABOVE THIS
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WEAK "LANDSPOUT"
TORNADO. ONE OF THESE BRIEF SPIN-UP'S HAS ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR
JUNIATA IN ADAMS COUNTY.

ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAKER AND SHORTER LIVED THAN TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES CAN STILL CAUSE INJURY OR MINOR DAMAGE. LANDSPOUTS
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE INTERACT WITH A
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD OR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM. LANDSPOUTS ARE
NOT USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WALL CLOUD AND ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT
TO DETECT WITH WEATHER RADAR.

IF A LANDSPOUT IS SIGHTED...FIRST TAKE ANY NECESSARY TORNADO SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS...AND THEN REPORT THE LANDSPOUT ACTIVITY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
346 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TORNADO          3 N JUNIATA             40.63N 98.51W
05/23/2016                   ADAMS              NE   911 CALL CENTER

            BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO. THREE REPORTS RECEIVED BY
            911 CALL CTR. PHOTO CONFIRMATION RECEIVED OF A SMALL
            FUNNEL AND DEBRIS CLOUD. THERE WAS NO LIGHTNING. NO SHWR
            OVERHEAD...JUST BUILDING CU/STRATOCU.

&&
UPDATED WITH ADDITIONAL INFO.

HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
354 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

NEZ047-061-074-084-232200-
HOWARD-BUFFALO-KEARNEY-FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. LIBORY...KEARNEY...MINDEN...
FRANKLIN...CAMPBELL...HILDRETH
354 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT
AND A LINE OF BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN...
KEARNEY...BUFFALO AND HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS FRANKLIN...KEARNEY...BUFFALO AND
HOWARD COUNTIES. THIS FRONT WAS GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ABOVE THIS
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WEAK "LANDSPOUT"
TORNADO OR TWO. ONE OF THESE BRIEF SPIN-UP'S ALREADY OCCURRED
NEAR JUNIATA IN ADAMS COUNTY AROUND 240 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAKER AND SHORTER LIVED THAN TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES CAN STILL CAUSE INJURY OR MINOR DAMAGE. LANDSPOUTS
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE INTERACT WITH A
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD OR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM. LANDSPOUTS ARE
NOT USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WALL CLOUD AND ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT
TO DETECT WITH WEATHER RADAR.

IF A LANDSPOUT IS SIGHTED...FIRST TAKE ANY NECESSARY TORNADO SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS...AND THEN REPORT THE LANDSPOUT ACTIVITY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

NEZ046-060-061-072-073-082-083-232300-
SHERMAN-DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-FURNAS-HARLAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUP CITY...SHERMAN RESERVOIR...
LITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...COZAD...WILLOW ISLAND...GOTHENBURG...
KEARNEY...ELWOOD...JOHNSON LAKE...HOLDREGE...CAMBRIDGE...
ARAPAHOE...OXFORD...BEAVER CITY...HOLLINGER...ALMA...ORLEANS
424 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
SHERMAN...DAWSON...BUFFALO...GOSPER...PHELPS...FURNAS... AND HARLAN
COUNTIES...

AT 415PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FRONT AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUDARIES ARE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
BOUNDARIES ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ABOVE THESE BOUNDARIES...THIS COULD RESULT
IN A BRIEF WEAK LANDSPOUT TORNADO OR TWO. ONE OF THESE BRIEF
SPIN-UP'S ALREADY OCCURRED BEFORE 3PM NEAR JUNIATA IN ADAMS COUNTY

ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAKER AND SHORTER LIVED THAN TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES CAN STILL CAUSE INJURY OR MINOR DAMAGE. LANDSPOUTS
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE INTERACT WITH A
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD OR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM. LANDSPOUTS ARE
NOT USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WALL CLOUD AND ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT
TO DETECT WITH WEATHER RADAR.

IF A LANDSPOUT IS SIGHTED...FIRST TAKE ANY NECESSARY TORNADO SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS...AND THEN REPORT THE LANDSPOUT ACTIVITY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
510 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

NEZ047-232245-
HOWARD NE-
510 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ST. PAUL...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. PAUL...DANNEBROG...FARWELL AND CUSHING.

LAT...LON 4117 9829 4107 9848 4120 9864 4139 9842
      4140 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 228DEG 17KT 4119 9849

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

NEZ063-076-232245-
CLAY NE-HAMILTON NE-
513 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TRUMBULL...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARVARD...GILTNER...TRUMBULL AND INLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 320 AND 324.

LAT...LON 4053 9818 4058 9828 4076 9828 4084 9823
      4077 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 212DEG 24KT 4065 9823

BILLINGS WRIGHT