Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
156 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IS
STARTING TO SHOW A FEW CUMULUS STARTING TO DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SENDS THE FIRST UPPER
WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MUCAPE IS OVER
3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS. EXPECT THERE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH THE FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS WELL. THE TIMING OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT IT WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MUCAPE DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
EVEN THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY.THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE FROM THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE MUCAPE IS OVER
4000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20
KTS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THAT
WOULD BE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THESE
REMAINING SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. WE WILL CARRY SOME LOW END CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH NEXT WEEKENDS RAIN CHANCES AND ODDS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER THAT
WE WILL BE DRY...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. TUESDAY COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...WHILE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WE DO EXPECT A COOL
DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME 50 DEGREE HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS BY SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD QUICKLY SLIDE EAST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVE IN. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO GET A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. RAINFALL COULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...INSTABILITY IS LARGELY USED UP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WILL JUST CALL FOR PRIMARILY RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BEING OUT OF
CANADA THE DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CEILING
AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT VISIBILITY AND
WINDS. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH
CEILING/VISIBILITY AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BRIEF
PERIODS OF ESPECIALLY MVFR CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE
BUT ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN TIME. OTHERWISE...WHILE THE
THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY WANED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN A "VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM" (VCTS) MENTION THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF
WEAKER/MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD
BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM FREE...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BROUGHT A RETURN TO VCTS FROM 21Z ONWARD. AS
FOR WINDS...UNLESS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW RESULTS IN BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS...EXPECT PREVAILING SPEEDS TO AVERAGE NEAR/BELOW 10KT THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF RAINFALL...BUT VERY
GENERALLY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-091200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-
104 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR
ROOKS...OSBORNE...MITCHELL AND JEWELL COUNTIES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF
BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF MAINLY SMALL
STREAMS AND RURAL ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH
HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION MAY STILL BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
OR FLOODING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
104 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COUNTIES EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DWINDLED
SINCE EARLIER IN THE EVENING...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL UP
TO AROUND NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH
HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY
REPORTS OF POSSIBLE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     HAIL             6 NNE LURAY             39.20N 98.65W
05/09/2016  M1.00 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     HAIL             2 NNE ASHERVILLE        39.43N 97.96W
05/09/2016  M1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT RELAYED FROM OAX. LOCATION EST FROM CHASER.

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     HAIL             HUNTER                  39.24N 98.40W
05/09/2016  M1.75 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
114 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     HAIL             5 N VICTOR              39.32N 98.28W
05/09/2016  M0.88 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
135 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     HAIL             BELOIT                  39.47N 98.11W
05/09/2016  E0.50 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DIME SIZE HAIL AT THIS TIME.

&&

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
157 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ019-090745-
MITCHELL KS-
157 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

AT 156 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HUNTER...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...GLEN ELDER...TIPTON...ASHERVILLE...SIMPSON...HUNTER...SCOTTSVILLE
AND VICTOR.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3922 9849 3944 9849 3957 9813 3957 9793
      3935 9793 3922 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 236DEG 22KT 3930 9839

ADP