Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
540 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

The main forecast concerns tonight were the type
of precipitation and how quickly temps will warm this morning,
then the timing of precipitation, and chances for severe storms
this afternoon.

Have kept an eye on the temps warming from north central Kansas
and despite adjusting, still have been a bit slow...temps in KS
warming quicker. However, temps in central Nebraska are staying
cooler longer. Freezing drizzle/rain chances will end before
sunrise in central Nebraska as temps continue to improve across
the area.  Overall temperatures will increase, and highs will be
in the 50s across most of the area.

Fog and low stratus streamed westward across the area during the
late evening. Visibilities across a good portion of the area have
improved, but have...at least at this time decided to keep the
dense fog advisory...assessing it again in a couple hours.

Mist and/or drizzle have been present at least in Hastings when
visibilities were at their lowest, and would not be surprised if
it was fairly widespread in similar conditions. Mist/drizzle has
decreased as visibilities have increased. Despite this, have kept
the chances for drizzle through the morning before rain becomes
the more dominant precipitation type towards sunrise. The high
resolution guidance depicts scattered rain showers becoming more
widespread near and after sunrise. Instability is increasing from
south to north as low level moisture streams northward. Thunder is
possible through the morning and early afternoon as upwards of
500-1000 J/KG spread northward across the area by afternoon. By
around 16-18z the development of a line of showers and
thunderstorms is possible along the cold front/dry line from south
central Nebraska south through north central Kansas. Damaging
winds and small hail are the primary threats, but as the triple
point of the warm front/cold front and dryline intersect in and
around north central Kansas/south central Nebraska a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out. Enhanced instability in this area with
the approaching lift support from the main upper wave supports at
least the chance for a low topped supercell that could produce a
tornado. SPC has kept a marginal risk across most of the forecast
area. The risk for severe storms looks end by mid to late
afternoon.

In addition to the thunderstorm chances, strong southerly winds
will impact most of the area throughout the late morning and afternoon.
Sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph is possible during the day with
gusts to 45 mph. Winds are expected to decrease during the evening
hours.

The the expected line of thunderstorms will move eastward and exit
the area relatively quickly, but with the latest high-res
solutions keeping precip around through 00z, have slowed the
ending of precipitation chances to closer to 00z/6pm.

Skies will be mostly clear, but some clouds that wrap around the
upper low may impact portions of central Nebraska tonight. After
an unseasonably warm day, lows will be closer to seasonal temps
with values in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

Cooler air will push into the forecast area for Monday. The winds
from the northwest will make it feel cooler. By Monday night a
surface high moves through the area and temperatures will drop off
with clear skies and as the winds become lighter. On Tuesday, the
surface high moves to the southeast and winds turn to the south and
there is warm advection. Temperatures will warm back up again. There
is an upper level wave and a cold front that move through the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Even with the cold front, the
temperatures should be a bit warmer on Wednesday. Northwest winds
could increase and be breezy on Thursday and temperatures will be a
little cooler.

Thursday night through Saturday there will be a transition from
northwest flow to more zonal as another upper level low moves onto
the west coast and digs into the southwest CONUS. During this period
the temperatures should be mild and weather should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

The three main concerns include 1. LIFR conditions due to dense
fog and low ceilings, 2. Thunderstorm chances this morning and
afternoon, and 3. Low level wind shear in addition to strong
surface winds.

The dense fog continues and while at times visibilities may
improve, it has continued to be more dense than not dense. These
low visibilities and ceilings will persist through the morning
hours before improving as the surface front move through the
region this afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances increase from now through the afternoon.
Convection has already begun and while thunder has not been
observed yet, the chances increase from now on. Scattered
convection is likely through the morning hours with a line of
storms moving through the region late this morning, early
afternoon as the front moves through.

Strong sustained southerly surface winds will be present across
the area through much of the day. In addition to the surface winds
being strong, low level wind shear will be high throughout the
day.

By late this afternoon, conditions will improve to MVFR and VFR,
but the strong winds will persist through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Billings Wright

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
261200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP 70
MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE CHANCE OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NEAR THE STATE LINE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

EWALD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1131 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ006-018-251830-
Osborne KS-Smith KS-
1131 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSBORNE AND SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 PM CST...

At 1131 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Woodruff to 6 miles
northeast of Codell. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Smith Center, Osborne, Downs, Kensington, Natoma, Lebanon, Gaylord,
Portis, Alton, Athol, Harlan, Cedar and Bellaire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3957 9904 3958 9906 4000 9907 4000 9850
      3913 9849 3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 263DEG 46KT 3995 9930 3927 9911

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

NEZ061-074-084-251845-
Kearney NE-Franklin NE-Buffalo NE-
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUFFALO...KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CST...

At 1140 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Eddyville to near Harlan County Dam.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 268 and 291.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Minden, Gibbon, Ravenna, Shelton, Franklin, Axtell,
Hildreth, Wilcox, Campbell, Pleasanton, Riverdale, Upland, Naponee,
Bloomington, Riverton, Heartwell, Norman and Poole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4104 9873 4000 9873 4000 9917 4105 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 244DEG 41KT 4093 9963 4003 9925

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ007-019-251945-
Jewell KS-Mitchell KS-
1239 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL AND JEWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM CST...

At 1239 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Red Cloud to near Victor.
Movement was east at 60 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Mankato, Cawker City, Glen Elder, Jewell, Burr Oak, Esbon,
Asherville, Formoso, Simpson, Ionia, Randall, Hunter, Scottsville,
Webber, Victor, Lovewell State Park and Montrose.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9840 3987 9851 4000 9850 4000 9793
      3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 263DEG 53KT 3997 9845 3922 9825

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
12/10/2016                   BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONSTRUCTION TRAILERS BLOWN OVER NEAR KEARNEY HIGH
            SCHOOL. A BARN LEAN-TO DAMAGED ON 46TH STREET IN SAME
            GENERAL AREA AS OTHER DAMAGE.

&&

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ