Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

The main forecast challenge is determining our chances and timing of
precipitation.

Upper level flow is from the west/northwest with a fairly strong jet
at 40 to 60 kts, at least strong for our July standards. A series of
low-amplitude ripples are making their way toward us early this
morning, and the convection is extensive enough to raise chances of
rain significantly today. Outflow from these storms is showing up
well on radar data, and could help initiate more storms as the
outflow heads south. I expect the 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear along
with mid-level lapse rates above 1000 J/kg will help convection to
keep going this morning, and we could even have a strong to severe
storm or two with this scenario for nearly the entire period today
and tonight. In fact, it is difficult to come up with a time where
there may be a lull. Perhaps there could be a lull in our
northeastern CWA late afternoon and early evening as some short term
models indicate, but I expect refiring of convection this
evening/tonight, as continued support for convection occurs with
more subtle waves on the way.

All in all, this could wind up being quite the damp and cool day for
much of the area. I increased chances of precipitation to at least
50 percent for most of the CWA today, and even went 70 to 80 for
some northwestern/western areas. I decreased highs today to upper
70s in our north to mid 80s over north central Kansas. Kept lows
nearly the same for tonight in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

...Serious Heatwave on the Way with at Least 2 Days of 100+ Temps a
Possibility in the Tri-Cities...

Aloft: A ridge will extend from MT-NM Sat morning...anchored by a
subtropical high over the Desert SW...with trofs over the Pac NW and
Great Lakes. The high will lift over the Cntrl Plains and expand and
strengthen Sun-Mon with significant amplification of the longwaves.
Anticyclonic flow will envelop the entire CONUS thru at least the
end of next week (7/23-24) with trofs on the E and W coasts. The
12Z/14 EC ensemble mean suggests this pattern could be locked in
thru the end of the month.

Surface: At daybreak Sat low pres will be over WY/MT. This low will
slide SSE with a weak cool front dropping into KS/Neb. By 00Z/Mon
the front should extend from SW-NE from roughly Dodge City-Omaha.
This front will become quasi-stationary Mon from W-E across KS as
Canadian high pres sinks into the Nrn Plains. As low pres tracks
thru SW Canada Tue...the front should lift back N across the fcst
area as a warm front. The Nrn Plains high will migrate into the Ern
USA with the front becoming quasi-stationary across the Nrn USA.
This will put the fcst area into the oven/very hot warm sector.

A few details of interest...

There are low confidence chances for tstms Sat into Sat night until
very warm capping mid-lvl temps averaging +14C move in by daybreak
Sun. Beyond that...the combination of the EML and subsidence
inversion should result in svrl dry/hot days...especially beginning
Wed. The possible wildcard is that a few very isolated tstms will
probably develop each afternoon/eve in the very deep mixing to the W
over the high plains. If somehow a large enough cold pool
developed...a small cluster or two of tstms could make it E into the
fcst area. But it will be fighting a lot of CIN.

Other than that the big story will be the scorching heat. We may not
be hot enough yet in the fcst. We've seen temp guidance suggesting
svrl days of at least 100F in the Tri-Cities. The worst of the heat
will probably Wed-Thu and possibly into Fri.

We may also not be warm enough at night. There may be enough pres
grad to keep the boundary layer warm enough for temps to remain in
the 80s most of the night...with lows only falling into the upr 70s.
Those kind of warm nighttime lows will make it easier for temps to
rocket into the low-mid 100s.

We will need to watch the dwpts closely. The subsidence inversion
may limit mixing N of I-80 and E of Hwy 281...keeping dwpts higher.
This plays into the Heat Index.

We may need a Heat Advisory some days next week.

Kearney has yet to hit 100F this summer. GRI hit 101F June 15th and
21st. HSI hit 102F on June 17th and 100 on the 21st.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

There are on and off chances of thunderstorms through nearly the
entire forecast period, especially late morning and early
afternoon today, as well as after midnight tonight, but storms
could pretty much occur at any time, and there is a marginal risk
of severe weather from these storms. Also, there is a brief window
late tonight that we could have some significant low-level wind
shear with the development and movement of the low-level jet.
Confidence is not high enough to put this in the forecast yet.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOTHENBURG
NEBRASKA TO MANKATO KANSAS. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH HAIL AT
LEAST THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.
SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW...BUT IF THEY
DO OCCUR THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE
SEVERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT LEAST 100 DEGREES EACH DAY OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM GOTHENBURG NEBRASKA TO MANKATO KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN/KELLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
733 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NEZ082-151300-
FURNAS NE-
733 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 800
AM CDT...

AT 733 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CAMBRIDGE...OR 44 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...WILSONVILLE AND HENDLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4033 10020 4027 9989 4000 9993 4003 10008
      4007 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 298DEG 17KT 4022 10017

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
745 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ005-NEZ083-084-151315-
PHILLIPS KS-FRANKLIN NE-HARLAN NE-
745 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 745 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ORLEANS TO NEAR LONG ISLAND. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...ORLEANS...REPUBLICAN CITY...LONG ISLAND...NAPONEE...HUNTLEY...
WOODRUFF AND HARLAN COUNTY DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN HASTINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 9945 4021 9904 3996 9907 3976 9924
      3987 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 281DEG 17KT 4016 9939 3993 9948

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ005-006-NEZ084-151400-
PHILLIPS KS-SMITH KS-FRANKLIN NE-
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...
NORTHWESTERN SMITH AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM
CDT...

AT 813 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WOODRUFF...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF PHILLIPSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGTON.

LAT...LON 4000 9936 4000 9918 4005 9918 4010 9898
      3979 9892 3983 9936 3999 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 261DEG 20KT 3993 9933

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
849 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NEZ061-062-074-075-151415-
HALL NE-KEARNEY NE-ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-
849 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BUFFALO...HALL...
NORTHEASTERN KEARNEY AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAIRO TO NEAR WOOD RIVER TO NEAR GIBBON.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...GIBBON...WOOD RIVER...SHELTON...KENESAW...
DONIPHAN...CAIRO...JUNIATA...ALDA...PROSSER AND HANSEN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 284 AND 316.

LAT...LON 4103 9829 4049 9828 4055 9873 4071 9891
      4104 9885 4105 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 307DEG 32KT 4104 9852 4087 9865 4073 9879

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
852 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ005-006-151430-
PHILLIPS KS-SMITH KS-
852 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN
SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 852 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF KENSINGTON TO PHILLIPSBURG.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...KENSINGTON...AGRA...KIRWIN...GAYLORD...
GLADE...ATHOL AND CEDAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN HASTINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 9938 3972 9943 3998 9937 3998 9876
      3957 9882 3957 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 307DEG 27KT 3987 9905 3974 9930

ADP

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