Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
936 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Updated the forecast this evening to increase chances of
showers/thunderstorms. Storms have become quite organized and have
plenty of shear and mid-level instability to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Plenty of instability across the region this afternoon with a
strong CAP inhibiting any convective development locally. If there
is enough forcing to overcome this CAP...any storms that do
develop will rapidly intensify and have the potential to become
severe...which more than justifies the slight risk for severe
weather the storm prediction center has advertised for much of the
local area. That said...the confidence of the CAP being broken
through the late afternoon hours appears very low...and
consequently trimmed precipitation chances across much of the
local area through the early evening hours.

Thereafter...some short term model guidance is attempting to hold
together the convection presently developing over the high plains
and propagating it eastward across the local area during the early
evening hours. While the HRRR appears to be one of the more
aggressive solutions...and most guidance is dry...cannot
completely rule out the chance for a line of storms developing
with strong winds being the primary concern...and maintained this
possibility in the forecast to coincide with a severe thunderstorm
watch that was just issued.

That said...The better chance for precipitation appears to come
during the late evening through overnight hours as the main upper
level disturbance brushes the northern/eastern fringes of the
local forecast area. As the LLJ intensifies and feeds into this
disturbance...expect this convection to maintain itself through
the early morning hours Thursday...with cooler air filtering in
behind this shortwave during the daytime hours.

While there is some question in just how much low level stratus
will filter in behind the wave...which could have a significant
impact on temperatures...only tweaked down temps across south
central Nebraska as the bulk of this stratus will be focused to
our north/east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Cooler air will continue to settle in across the entire forecast
area Thursday night through Friday...as temperatures across the
region return to near or just below seasonal norms Friday
afternoon. While the daytime hours Friday look dry...expect a
chance for thunderstorms to creep in from the southwest Friday
night as the first of several upper level disturbances brushes the
local area. As a result...expect periodic small chances for
Thunderstorms across the local area Friday night through next
Wednesday...with the best chance for more widespread precipitation
coming next Monday night...as a stronger wave is currently
forecast to cross the plains then.

Temperature wise...do not anticipate a significant change in the
overall airmass behind Thursdays cool front...with near seasonal
temps forecast beyond Friday and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Storms in the western High Plains are rolling this way, and could
be in the vicinity for a few hours this evening, but coverage
should be scattered.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
930 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
930 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP THEY COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN AREA WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A HEBRON TO ORD NEBRASKA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OFF AND ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS IF THEY WILL BE SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 100 TO 105 THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A YORK NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN