Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

A surface trough evident in both observations and on radar this
afternoon extends from around Fullerton Nebraska southwest towards
Cambridge Nebraska. Expect this trough to be the focus of shower
and thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and
evening hours as the CAP continues to erode and an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west.

With ample instability in place...once the CAP breaks...expect
some of these storms to rapidly intensify...with the possibility
of large hail and strong wind gusts both possible. That
said...with very modest shear...continue to think that widespread
severe weather is rather unlikely...and more than likely any
reports of large hail should be very isolated and the duration of
the strongest storms will be relatively brief. While widespread
severe weather seems unlikely...with elevated instability
persisting through the overnight hours and the approaching upper
level disturbance...expect a rather active evening across the
local area with likely the best chance for widespread rainfall of
the entire forecast period...with many of the short term forecast
models developing a line of precipitation and propagating it
southeastward across the entire forecast area during the overnight
hours.

For Wednesday...expect significant instability to build across the
local again...with slightly more significant shear to work with.
That said...the CAP is expected to be stronger and the forcing of
the subsequent disturbance will be primarily during the evening
and overnight hours...so the daytime is expected to remain dry
with another round of near 100 degree or greater heat index
values expected across much of the local forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Periodic small chances for thunderstorms are evident through the
extended periods...albeit most areas will likely remain dry as
coverage is not expected to be widespread any particular day.

Starting Wednesday night...expect the next upper level disturbance
to brush the northern half of the forecast area potentially
sparking some elevated thunderstorm activity during the evening
and overnight hours. While coverage of thunderstorm activity is
uncertain...with significant elevated instability and some deep
layer shear to work with...could see a few storms develop large
hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts...and not
surprisingly much of south central Nebraska is highlighted with a
slight risk of severe weather from the storm prediction center
again tomorrow.

Thereafter...thunderstorm chances diminish across the majority of
the forecast area for Thursday and Friday...albeit a few storms
will be possible across the northern and eastern fringes of the
local area behind a passing cold front Thursday afternoon. That
said...expect a slightly cooler airmass to settle in behind this
front bringing some relief to the local area later this week and
through the upcoming weekend...when high temperatures are expected
to return to near or just below normal.

Additional chances for thunderstorms then return to the forecast
area Saturday through next Tuesday...as several weak disturbances
traverse the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Thunderstorms have erupted over KEAR and another thunderstorm
headed toward KGRI from the south. Warnings have been issues for
these storms as hail the size of quarters to half dollard have
been reported. More thunderstorms could occur for much of the rest
of the night. VFR conditions are forecast after midnight.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 SE DANNEBROG          41.09N 98.50W
07/05/2016  E1.25 INCH       HOWARD             NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 WSW HORDVILLE         41.06N 97.94W
07/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
816 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             5 S FULLERTON           41.29N 97.97W
07/05/2016  E1.25 INCH       MERRICK            NE   STORM CHASER

            HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...HIGHWAY 14 ON THE
            NANCE-MERRICK COUNTY LINE

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
819 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             HORDVILLE               41.08N 97.89W
07/05/2016  E1.50 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IN TOWN

&&

PFANNKUCH

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