Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Hastings, NE

006 
WWUS53 KGID 290457
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEC065-073-083-137-290506-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-160629T0500Z/
GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-FURNAS NE-HARLAN NE-
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GOSPER...PHELPS...FURNAS AND
WESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998
      4070 9998 4070 9977 4060 9918 4054 9918
      4023 9931 4000 9961 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 286DEG 50KT 4067 10002 4044 10008 4024 10027 

$$

HEINLEIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

This is a rather complex forecast period with the primary concern
centering around the chance of thunderstorms tonight.

Most forecast models indicate that thunderstorms will develop
across portions of western Nebraska and the north central Nebraska
sandhills region this evening. The question then becomes will
these thunderstorms hold together through the overnight hours as
they track southeast and eventually into our forecast area. The
best environment for thunderstorms through the overnight hours
will be across our western zones and this is where we will
continue to carry the highest chances. However, this is not a sure
bet with the latest 12z ECMWF basically dry for nearly our entire forecast
area through 7 am Wednesday. The 12z NAM and GFS are the most
optimistic in our area finally catching some rain with the
highest likelihood across western zones. Some of the WRF models
also indicate an MCS tracking into our west and then dieing out
late tonight. Most of our counties are in need of precipitation
so lets hope these storms can hold together tonight.

There will be plenty of elevated CAPE and deep layer shear for a
few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tonight. The best
bet for the stronger storms will be earlier on in the MCS
life cycle...which will thus favor western zones. In
addition...a wind threat tends to be the primary threat from most
MCS events and wind will be the primary threat tonight.

Wednesday...Thunderstorms will remain possible especially along
old outflow boundaries. The greatest threat of thunderstorms on
Wednesday will slide south through the day and should be more over
Kansas by later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

We do not expect any big changes in the current pattern...which
will continue to support the chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms primarily in the evening and overnight hours. These
will be forced by generally weak shortwaves and so will be fairly
hit and miss through the period. However...heavy rain will
certainly be possible for areas that can get under some of these
often fairly slow moving thunderstorms...but again coverage area
may be lacking.

Overall the high temperatures should be more pleasant than what we
had through most of June with highs only around 80 to the lower
80s on most days. These temperatures are actually a bit below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Main concern for the TAFS is whether or not convection along the
high plains will organize and sustain during the overnight hours
to impact KEAR and KGRI. Short term models suggest storms could
reach the terminals toward 05Z and continue into the overnight
hours before weakening/moving out Wednesday morning. Have carried
VCTS and will monitor trends. Aside from the potential for storms,
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Fay

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER DARK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN ALL OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS A
DECENT BET FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD MATERIALIZE LATER IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ060-290400-
DAWSON NE-
1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOTHENBURG TO 29 MILES
WEST OF COZAD TO 38 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMBRIDGE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH
AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COZAD...GOTHENBURG AND FARNAM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 209 AND 227.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9982 4070 9993 4070 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 339DEG 38KT 4114 10028 4092 10054 4055 10082

FAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1052 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ039-046-290415-
SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
1052 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1051 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES WEST OF FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK TO 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA TO 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITCHFIELD.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORD...ARCADIA...ELYRIA AND FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4174 9892 4146 9892 4134 9904 4128 9920
      4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 302DEG 19KT 4175 9936 4155 9930 4140 9955

FAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ060-290430-
DAWSON NE-
1058 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 1130
PM CDT...

AT 1057 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF COZAD TO NEAR GOTHENBURG.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COZAD...GOTHENBURG AND FARNAM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 209 AND 227.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9976 4086 9985 4070 9998
      4070 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 278DEG 24KT 4104 10002 4088 10012 4074 10032

FAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1113 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ060-061-072-073-082-290500-
GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-DAWSON NE-FURNAS NE-BUFFALO NE-
1113 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAWSON...WESTERN BUFFALO...
GOSPER...WESTERN PHELPS AND FURNAS COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR EDDYVILLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF CAMBRIDGE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...CAMBRIDGE...ARAPAHOE...BERTRAND...ELWOOD...BEAVER CITY...
OVERTON...LOOMIS...SUMNER...HOLBROOK...MILLER...EDISON...EDDYVILLE...
WILSONVILLE...SMITHFIELD...HENDLEY AND JOHNSON LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 224 AND 254.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998
      4070 9998 4070 10009 4105 9976 4105 9922
      4070 9943 4067 9942 4067 9939 4043 9948
      4035 9958 4035 9963 4028 9963 4019 9969
      4000 9989 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 344DEG 49KT 4105 9967 4023 10045

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1114 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ039-046-290445-
SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
1114 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY AND SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

AT 1114 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF ELYRIA TO NEAR ARCADIA TO 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF LITCHFIELD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORD...LOUP CITY...ARCADIA...NORTH LOUP...LITCHFIELD...ASHTON...ROCKVILLE...
HAZARD...ELYRIA AND SHERMAN RESERVOIR DAM.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4167 9876 4139 9875 4105 9885 4105 9921
      4173 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 291DEG 31KT 4166 9917 4147 9906 4129 9931

FAY