Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
256 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

This afternoon/evening:
Temperatures this afternoon have reached into the 90s...and even
exceeding 100 in some spots in north central Kansas. A front can
be seen on radar and some CU have developed along it's weak
convergence in central Nebraska.  High resolution guidance
continues to indicate the chance for isolated thunderstorms late
this afternoon into the evening with peak heating. There is little
shear and no real forcing, but instability will be high and a few
storms could develop. Have increase the area for those small
chances into south central Nebraska.

The main concern however is temperatures on Thursday. Upper
ridging will continue to build in and amplify. With temperatures
already near 100 this afternoon in north central
Kansas, expecting temperatures to exceed 100 in north central
Kansas and approach 100 again in south central Nebraska,
including the Tri-cities. Heat indices will be between 100 and 105
during the afternoon. A heat advisory will be issued this
afternoon for Thursday afternoon for all of north central Kansas
and much of south central Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Friday - Sunday:
The upper ridge axis will slide eastward some and energy will
move in from the west under the ridge and could impact the Central
Plains. Depending on how potent this disturbance ends up being
initially there could be a chance for showers Friday across
central and eastern Nebraska. Then again late Friday night into
Saturday morning showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a
more potent piece of energy moves in. Instability will be
plentiful and shear will be modest Friday night. Some
thunderstorms could be strong.

Highs will be consistently in the 90s and low 100s through
the weekend as the upper ridge axis continues to build in.

Monday - Wednesday:
A front approaches the region on Monday as a wave moves across the
Northern Plains. This front is expected to move through during the
day and evening Monday and there is a chance of precipitation
along the front Monday and Monday night.

The upper level pattern changes to zonal and eventually
northwesterly flow by Tuesday. The front and this break in pattern
will help cool temperatures a bit into the 80s and low 90s through
mid-week.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
disturbance dives into the Great Lakes region. There are some
discrepancies on how this wave will evolve so stay tuned to later
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will be light and
southerly to southwesterly during the day becoming southeasterly
overnight and into Thursday. Skies will be mainly clear throughout
the forecast. Low level wind shear could impact KEAR towards
morning. There is also a chance for some scattered to isolated
thunderstorms with peak heating this afternoon/evening, but
confidence is low that it will impact a terminal. Thus if need be
the TAF will be amended.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
162030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
327 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS, IF
THEY DEVELOP, COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE HEAT INDEX ON THURSDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS WARRANTED.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

KSZ018-152130-
OSBORNE KS-
349 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 348 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES EAST OF NATOMA...OR 37 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSBORNE AND DOWNS.

LAT...LON 3926 9888 3953 9866 3954 9849 3913 9849
      3913 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 229DEG 10KT 3919 9872

BILLINGS WRIGHT