Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
615 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2016

A frontal boundary remains draped across the local area this
afternoon...with lots of stratus to the north of this
boundary...and mostly sunny skies along with breezy southerly
winds ongoing to the south of this front. While this boundary has
the potential to be the focusing mechanism for thunderstorms later
this afternoon and evening...overall forcing is weak and the CAP
is strong...especially on the northern side of the frontal
boundary. Despite this...models are trying to initiate some
convection over the next few hours.

With the confidence of significant convection developing across
the local area over the next few hours on the lower side...think
that there is a decent chance for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity developing during the late evening through
overnight hours when convection over the high plains begins to
ride northeast along the aforementioned boundary. While widespread
severe weather is not anticipated under this scenario...the local
area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather...and if storms
are able to develop later this afternoon or evening...there is
ample shear and instability to generate large hail and strong
thunderstorm wind gusts.

As the weakening front then tracks further southeast during the
day tomorrow...any chance for thunderstorms is expected to
diminish from west to east. In addition...with this front
becoming more diffuse with time...expect little change in the
overall airmass behind the front...so another seasonably warm to
slightly above average afternoon...temperature wise...is
anticipated across the region Wednesday. Lingering cloud cover
could play a role in how warm we get tomorrow...but think that
even if the sun does not appear until mid to late afternoon...
there will be sufficient time to reach the mid 80s in most spots.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2016

Expect the upper level flow to become more westerly by Wednesday
night...with generally zonal flow anticipated across the region
Thursday. This more zonal pattern will be shortlived...however...
as a fairly strong cold front is expected to track from the
northern Rockies into the plains on Friday. In addition to
dropping temperatures back down slightly below normal over the
upcoming weekend...expect a decent shot for some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the local area late Thursday through
Friday afternoon...as this front makes its way across the region.
While severe potential this far out is highly uncertain...at least
a few strong thunderstorms over this time period cannot be ruled
out given the amount of forecast instability and shear.

Behind this front...expect seasonably cool temperatures along
with dry weather to start the weekend...with temperatures
rebounding nicely as southerly flow increases across the region on
Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then return
Monday through Tuesday...as yet another front tracks across the
local area. This front will also usher in a much cooler
airmass...with high temperatures potentially not climbing out of
the 60s over the middle portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2016

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY WITH
WINDS REFLECTING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. STILL SOME LAG IN LOWER
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS THEY ARE HOLDING NORTH BUT WOULD EXPECT THOSE
TO MAKE IT INTO BOTH AIRPORTS AFTER DARK. ALSO AFTER DARK...POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...FEW STORMS
AND MVFR/VFR CEILINGS MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
072000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
BOW CREEK IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING MESSAGE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

KSZ017-070015-
ROOKS KS-
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROOKS COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALCO...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WAS PART OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
MOVE ACROSS ROOKS COUNTY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SUCH QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING SO BE AWARE TO THIS
SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...PALCO...WOODSTON...DAMAR...ZURICH...
CODELL AND WEBSTER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9960 3957 9960 3957 9905 3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 239DEG 17KT 3921 9970

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             PALCO                   39.25N 99.56W
09/06/2016  M0.25 INCH       ROOKS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN, PEA SIZED HAIL AND WINDS EST AT 40 TO 50MPH
            WITH STORM.

&&

PBEDA