Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Glasgow, MT

August 2, 2016Prairie County, Montana

NWS Glasgow, MT issued this special weather statement at Aug 2, 2016, 8:32 PM MDT for Prairie County, Montana. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 2, 2016, 8:32 PM MDT (02:32 UTC)
Expired
Aug 2, 2016, 9:15 PM MDT
In force
43 min
Issued by
NWS Glasgow, MT

County Prairie County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 170 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 375 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-08-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 872 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-08-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 89 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
872 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2130 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
224 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 2, 2:36 PM MDT, 5 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 2:36 PM MDT, 5 hours 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
236 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...
An upper ridge will push downstream while a trough digs into the
northwest part of the state. Low level moisture is on the increase
with dew points recovering into the 50s for much of the southern
and eastern portions of the CWA. Will therefore maintain an
isolated mention for thunder which will continue into the night.

A cold front will push through on Wednesday with a wind shift to
the west and northwest. Expect winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph to be common and persistent. Thus, a lake wind advisory has
been issued for Fort Peck Lake. While afternoon RH values are
expected to bottom around 20 percent in the presence of these
winds, fuels are not supportive of the need for a RFW.
Nevertheless, will send an e-mail to fire partners to mention
elevated concerns, but not critical.

Expect drier and cooler conditions on Thursday as high pressure
advances over the area. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

The extended period begins with a building ridge pinched up by
closed low moving south along the Canadian/Pac-NW coast. By late
Saturday, with the trough picking up Pacific moisture and ejecting
it into Montana, there will be,possibly, an increasing chance for
storms and wetting rains into early next week. The GFS and the
ECMWF still vary greatly in expected pops and QPF. The GFS is
going wetter and the EC is going drier. So with the uncertainty,
left pops and wx as is for now.

With Northeast Montana positioned under the fluctuating boundary
between the hot air-mass to the south and the cooler air-mass in
Canada, expect temperatures to remain close to seasonal norms. Few
changes to the current forecast.

Templer

Previous discussion:
Drier and potentially more stable conditions are anticipated for the
end of the week as an upper ridge builds over the region. This
ridge building is in response to a trof digging into the Pacific
Northwest.

By Friday night the ridge shifts east into the Canadian Prairies
and the trof continues to dig along the west coast. Southwest
flow aloft into the state along with low level return flow across
the plains will increase moisture and instability. Expectation is
thus a return of scattered thunderstorms through the weekend and
into early next week. Ebert

&&

.AVIATION...

An energetic trough pushes across the Divide tonight, sending the
high pressure ridge to the east. Weak frontal movement and
moderate instability could kick off a few thunderstorms this
evening.

Therefore, expect VFR, except when an isolated storm pops up.
Since the chances are small, if that happens, a TAF amend will be
issued.

The trough and a stronger frontal boundary move through Northeast
Montana starting Wednesday morning. This will cause a wind shift
to the northwest and increase in speed to 25g35kt.

Templer

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday For
Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and
Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 2, 3:05 AM MDT, 17 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MTZ016>027-059>062-030915-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
305 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE THE WATERS
OF FORT PECK LAKE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 5:18 PM MDT, 3 hours 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
518 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MTZ026-030000-
PRAIRIE MT-
518 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

AT 518 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTH OF TERRY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRY...FALLON...MILDRED...ZERO AND CALYPSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4657 10524 4657 10545 4660 10545 4660 10549
      4666 10549 4666 10558 4674 10558 4675 10562
      4677 10562 4686 10503 4685 10461 4666 10461
      4666 10473 4661 10474 4661 10486 4657 10486
      4657 10498 4654 10499 4654 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 250DEG 7KT 4655 10526

PROTON
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 7:16 PM MDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
716 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MTZ026-030215-
PRAIRIE MT-
716 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PRAIRIE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 716 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF TERRY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
PRAIRIE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4657 10524 4657 10543 4661 10544 4673 10509
      4654 10503 4654 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 256DEG 10KT 4658 10531

MICKELSON
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 8:32 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Glasgow, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 2, 7:16 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementGGWPrairie59 min
Aug 2, 8:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWPrairie64 min
Aug 2, 9:32 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementGGWPrairie43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.