Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
806 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...

Earlier thunderstorm activity which impacted our southeastern
zones has either eased or moved into the Dakotas. Additional
periods of isolated strong thunderstorms are still possible across
our far southern and a far northern zones tonight. That outlook is
expected to generally transition into a more scattered overnight
rain showers then eventually diminish over our eastern zones by
morning, based on the latest near and short term model consensus.
Tried to blend and adjust the PoPs and weather grids to reflect
this reasoning. BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to become more scattered this afternoon with ridge axis
sliding east of the CWA and approaching shortwave trough
increasing dynamic forcing for ascent. Cape/shear parameters
support mainly single to multicellular structures, although an
isolated more organized storm is possible this afternoon and
evening. Expect the possibility for an isolated severe
thunderstorm as a result.

Progressive zonal flow will continue for Sunday and so will
maintain isolated to scattered mention of showers and
thunderstorms.

As high pressure moves over the area and the flow aloft becomes
oriented more southwesterly ahead of next shortwave there could be
a dry period for Sunday night and Monday. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...

Afternoon update:

Changes to the forecast was to raises PoPs slight Monday night
onward. Wednesday night through Thursday were brought up to
chance with consistency holding for a weak impulse in the zonal to
southwest flow aloft. Temperatures were also tweaked up Friday
with the a ridge gaining prominence during this time. GAH

Previous long term discussion:

The extended period forecast starts off Monday evening with a
long- wave ridge centered over Central CONUS, and a large upper
low over the Canadian Rockies with a short-wave extension dipping
into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern aloft will generate a
southwesterly flow into Montana. As has been the case lately, the
stationary boundary between the air- masses will meander close to
Northeast Montana. Initially, both the EC and the GFS place most
of our area north of the boundary. Instability will be weak at
00Z, so when disturbances ride along the boundary, there will be a
chance for general thunderstorms and rain showers Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday the trough swings through the Inter-
mountain West. The southwest flow will introduce moisture and
instability for scattered general thunderstorms. But as the
increasingly energetic trough approaches the local area the
chances for thunderstorms and showers increase. This may make
recreation on Fort Peck Lake hazardous Thursday. Another trough
follows that could brings additional storms for the weekend.

Overall the period is rather progressive and increasingly wet.
Pops were increased overall.

Templer

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR Possible.

SVR WX: The Storm Prediction Center has placed southern portions
of Northeast Montana in its Convective Outlook for Marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms this evening. This will mainly affect
KGDV.

Weak impulses in the upper flow and low surface pressure will
produce isolated thunderstorms and showers this evening.
Stronger storms may produce gusty winds and cause temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions. A VCTS will be used to handle sub-mention
chances or scattered thunder in the forecast cycle, but When
storms are about, be alert for TAF Amends with TS itself.

WINDS: Southeast to east at 5 to 10 kts tonight, becoming west at
10 to 15 kts Sunday.

Hicks/Templer

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
313 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

MTZ016>027-059>062-030915-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
313 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WSW GLENDIVE          47.09N 104.83W
07/02/2016  E60 MPH          DAWSON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED A 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

BMICKELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
916 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

MTZ023-025-026-030415-
PRAIRIE MT-DAWSON MT-MCCONE MT-
916 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MCCONE...NORTH CENTRAL
PRAIRIE AND SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

AT 916 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF TERRY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINDSAY AND MARSH.

LAT...LON 4694 10561 4715 10569 4731 10492 4687 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 258DEG 23KT 4704 10553

TEMPLER

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