Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
321 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...

WNW flow aloft today will continue the next few days. A slow
moving shortwave trough will move across waves over Northeast
Montana tonight and Thursday. With an atmosphere that will stay
moist and unstable, look for showers and thunderstorms will occur
at times over the area. With CAPE as high as 1500 j/kg and lifted
index as low as -4, a few severe storms may occur tonight. Cool
air mass associated with a high pressure system to the northeast
in Manitoba will keep temperatures below normal for highs on
Thursday.

The shortwave will move to the southeast Thursday Night
diminishing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. A shortwave
ridge in the NW flow aloft will allow for mainly dry weather late
Thursday Night.

A shortwave trough will move across Saskatchewan on Friday.
Precipitation will stay mainly to the north of the forecast area.
A shower or thunderstorm could affect the northern zones in the
afternoon. Will mention a slight chance. With more sun expected,
temperatures will be closer to normal for highs on Friday. Forrester

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

A sharp cut-off low moves into Montana and increases the chance
for a severe thunderstorm late Sunday. The ECMWF shows the best
chance of this happening and seems reasonable given that it's been
a wet summer and the GFS seems a bit too optimistic. Added mention
of gusty winds and small hail for now. Rest of forecast looked
good. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Relatively dry and benign weather conditions are anticipated for
the weekend as an upper ridge influences eastern Montana while a
trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. Given higher heights
with the ridge expect warm temperatures with highs largely into
the 90s.

Models continue to diverge a bit on the handling of the trough but
overall consensus is building toward having the trough gradually
push east and bring about increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by about Tuesday or Tuesday night. How much will
depend more precisely on the track/placement of the upper low as
well as timing. Once this feature pushes through along with a
surface cold front, expect a general cooling trend into the middle
part of next week. Maliawco

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR.

mvfr or possible brief IFR ceilings could affect mainly KSDY and
KGDV later tonight and Thursday morning. Associated rainshowers
could also drop visibilities.

winds should be generally light except a little gusty and erratic
near precipitation. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

MTZ016>027-059>062-281000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
333 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
415 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

MTZ016-021-022-060-272315-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS MT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS MT-PETROLEUM MT-
GARFIELD MT-
415 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GARFIELD...
NORTHEASTERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM MDT...

AT 415 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21
MILES SOUTH OF ZORTMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROOKED CREEK REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 10829 4736 10779 4719 10819 4738 10832
      4758 10831 4758 10833 4757 10833 4757 10834
      4758 10836 4758 10838 4759 10838 4759 10840
      4758 10842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 315DEG 23KT 4762 10840

BIGELBACH

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