Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun...
Quick update was to expand the Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 to the
International border, chance weather type from probability to
coverage and spread pops more uniformly.

Templer

Previous Discussion...
Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to move east and
drives a divergent SW upper flow over the area tonight.
Thunderstorms anticipated to be scattered in nature so severe
conditions are not expected to be widespread as atmosphere is
capped with 700 mb temps aoa 15C. However, an inverted surface
trough over central montana will move east and work with the
incoming upper trough to help focus thunderstorms into the
evening. with dewpoints in the 40s over the sw zones, damaging
winds may be more of a threat, then hail will be a greater threat
as storms move northeast into 50s and 60s dewpoint air.

Activity should quickly end from the southwest later tonight. The
upper low moves across southern Sask with showers mainly staying
north of the border. NW flow and minor upper troughing may bring in
an isolated shower to the area Saturday night. But the big impact
for this period will be the wind. Lake wind issues are expected.

Temperatures over the weekend will be noticeably cooler with 850
mb temps about 10*C lower. TFJ

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...

Afternoon Update:
Most of the long range forecast remains intact as zonal flow with
increasing chances for PoPs and decreasing temperatures has been
well predicted. A slight change to add the latest wind data with
SuperBlend was updated but that was about it. GAH

Previous Long Term Discussion:
Sunday night begins with a broad, shallow ridge to the west and a
trough to the east. Flow aloft will be northwesterly. With the
ridge in place, conditions will be warm and dry. Models do show a
medium wave trough drifting inland near northern California and
southern Oregon.

By Monday afternoon or evening, the shallowing trough induces
winds aloft to turn to the southwest. In addition, hot desert air
pushes more north for a very warm day. Weak embedded impulses will
be enough to trigger isolated to scattered convection.

With the hot air-mass pushing the cool boundary into Canada, the
focus of storms moves north for Tuesday. Then Tuesday evening
another impulse in prairie provinces sends a weak front south to
cause a chance for storms through Wednesday. Then Thursday,
another trough moves in from the west for a chance of more storms.

Overall, near normal hot temperatures only need a disturbance to
set off storms through much of the period.

Templer

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Mainly VFR. Mid level clouds are currently streaming
across the terminals. A ridge overhead lifted to the east late
this afternoon allowing thunderstorms to form after 00Z. These
storms could become severe.

SEVERE WX: SPC has placed all the terminals within the area for
slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Scattered storm cells between
00Z to 06Z will have a chance for damaging downburst winds and
large hail when they hit.

LLWS: Between 03-09Z a slight chance for low level wind shear
will occur as a fast mid level front slides over a surface
inversion.

WINDS: East to southeast between 10 to 20 kts through early this
evening, becoming west at 10 to 20 kts mid morning Saturday as a
front passes through.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
352 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

MTZ016>023-059>062-232200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
352 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ024>027-232200-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
352 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REGION UNTIL 1000 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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