Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
244 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

The upper flow pattern across CONUS and Canada consists of a broad
trough across the north anchored by the Hudson Bay closed low
and a smaller closed low over southern BC and the Pac-NW. To the
south is a dome of hot air centered over the desert Southwest.
This hot air has forced its way into most of the West. The
boundary between the hot air mass and the cooler trough to the
north will push up to our forecast area, but not much into it. The
boundary will continue to be the focus of rain showers and
thunderstorms through the short-term period.

This evening a weak embedded short-wave disturbance, that moved
across Northeast Montana today, will exit east. Therefore, rain
showers and thunderstorms will mostly end around sunset.

Late tonight and Friday, behind the departing short-wave, the
trough to the west will push up a regional ridge across Montana,
increasing thickness heights and temperatures, stabilizing the
atmosphere, and minimizing precipitation.

Friday night, the Pac-NW trough moves near the Divide without
crossing it, backing local flow aloft to the southwest. This will
again introduce instability and moisture. All models show a weak
front that will initiate overnight showers and thunderstorms. The
most likely area will be over the western counties, but the models
don't focus it all there.

Saturday becomes more interesting. A complex front and greater
instability could lead to more showers and thunderstorms, with
possible small hail and gusty winds. CAPE becomes moderate, which
could lead to a few stronger storms. Currently, for day 3, SPC
has placed our eastern zones into an area of marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms, and a slight risk just over the border in
the Dakotas. Expect SPC to possibly increase our Day 3 threat
before Saturday as model details become clearer.

Again, due to the relative coolness of the temperatures, utilized
the POT_SummerWx tool to differentiate rain vs. thunder weather
types probability and coverage.

Templer

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Small changes were made, mainly to blend a bit toward 12z model
guidance. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
There will be a WSW flow over the area with shortwave troughs
Saturday Night and Sunday that will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

A ridge will build over Eastern Montana Sunday Night and Monday which
will diminish the chances for showers and thunderstorms and bring
warmer temperatures into the region.

A weak wave will move across Southern Saskatchewan Monday Night
which could bring a slight chance of thunderstorms near the
Canadian border.

An upper ridge is expected from Tuesday through the end of the
forecast period on Thursday with dry and warm weather. Forrester

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect showers & thunderstorms to diminish by evening. An
isolated shower/thunderstorm may linger into Friday morning
otherwise conditions will return to VFR.

WINDS: Light nw winds will become light easterly late Friday. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
719 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

MTZ016>027-059>062-151200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
719 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON SATURDAY, THERE IS A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

MTZ024-025-027-142145-
WIBAUX MT-DAWSON MT-RICHLAND MT-
248 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...EASTERN
DAWSON AND NORTHEASTERN WIBAUX COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 247 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF BLOOMFIELD...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF GLENDIVE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENDIVE...WIBAUX...WEST GLENDIVE...SAVAGE...SKAAR...INTAKE...
YATES...BURNS...HODGES...STIPEK AND MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4685 10417 4724 10506 4762 10470 4746 10404
      4690 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 297DEG 19KT 4744 10474

PROTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

MTZ022-023-025-026-142200-
PRAIRIE MT-DAWSON MT-GARFIELD MT-MCCONE MT-
311 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MCCONE...EASTERN
GARFIELD...NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE AND WEST CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 311 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BROCKWAY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CIRCLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CIRCLE...BROCKWAY...FLOWING WELLS REST AREA AND WATKINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4718 10617 4753 10617 4753 10540 4718 10541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 282DEG 21KT 4734 10578

PROTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
315 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

MTZ017-022-023-142215-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY MT-GARFIELD MT-MCCONE MT-
315 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY...
NORTHWESTERN MCCONE AND NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
MDT...

AT 314 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE PINES REC AREA...OR 27 MILES SOUTH OF GLASGOW...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE PINES REC AREA...NELSON CREEK REC AREA...ROCK CREEK REC AREA AND
HAXBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF ON OR AROUND FORT PECK LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4753 10675 4796 10664 4802 10597 4753 10602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 273DEG 22KT 4781 10658

PROTON

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