Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Glasgow, MT

600 
WWUS85 KGGW 022037
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

MTZ136-137-030600-
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160903T0600Z/
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-
237 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* IMPACTS: LOW HUMIDITIES AND A WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
  CREATE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS. EXPECT
  HUMIDITY TO RECOVER AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

* AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHEAST MT...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 136 AND
  137.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: IN CENTRAL MT...FERGUS. IN NORTHEAST
  MT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM...PHILLIPS AND VALLEY.

* COLD FRONT: A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
  THIS EVENING SWITCHING WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

* WIND: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. 

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

832 
WWUS85 KGGW 030316
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
916 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

MTZ136-137-030430-
/O.CAN.KGGW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160903T0600Z/
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-
916 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR RECOVERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO EXITED THE
WARNING AREA AND THUS THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING HAS ALSO DIMINISHED.
THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
909 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...
Update

Updated thunderstorm coverage based on current trends. Added gusty
winds and hail to the forecast due to the sounding suggesting the
remote possibility of it. Proton

Previous Discussion...Upper trough deepening over the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon will continue to bring upper
disturbances across Montana through this period. Models however
continue struggle with where and when showers occur across the
area.

Tongue of instability has extended north across the eastern zones
this afternoon thanks to a healthy south-southeast surface flow.
This may aid in some thunderstorm development this evening over
the central zones. Some of these may be on the strong side as they
may move quickly and produce gusty winds. Confidence not optimum
so will keep pops in the chance category with some of this in the
form of virga.

On Friday, some cooler air will seep into the western zones as the
upper trough continues to drift east. Expect another hot day over
the eastern zones where the mercury should top out in the mid 90s.

A disturbance should develop Friday night and bring a risk of
showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday, cooler air filters in along with some clouds. Expect
high temperatures in the 70s. TFJ

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Made some adjustments to the most impactful period in the long
term forecast - Saturday night through Tuesday - based on the
latest model consensus regarding precip timing and amounts.

Northeast Montana will find itself under the steady influence of
the northern stream low pressure trough as a cold continental air
mass holds sway over the region. This will set up the weather
pattern for multiple periods of rain showers across northeast
Montana. The unstable elements of the atmosphere will be far
enough removed from the area to keep any chance of thunderstorms
mostly confined to our far southeastern corner zones.

Over this nearly 3-day period, between half and inch and one inch
of rain is expected to accumulate across most northeast Montana
locations. BMickelson

The extended period will be noted as a progressive pattern of a
series of trough waves with cooler temperatures and frequent
periods of rain, much of it wetting.

The extended period begins Saturday evening with Northeast Montana
between a split trough. The northern wave will be a stacked,
closed low centered over northern Saskatchewan moving away. The
western trough will be an open wave over the Pacific Northwest.

Flow aloft for our area will be west-southwesterly, with the
distinct stationary boundary to the south. Therefore Sunday Tmax
will run around 15F cooler than normal.

The wet trough will swing through Montana Sunday and Monday to
bring wetting and measurable rains to the area. The movement will
nudge the cool boundary even farther south. The extensive cloud
cover and cooler air will maintain temperatures close to those on
Sunday through Tuesday.

Monday night could see remnant isolated rain showers, but Tuesday
there will be another follow-on wave that will bring additional
showers through Wednesday or Thursday.

The 00Z GFS shows an even larger, long-wave trough developing in
the West that could bring more wetting rains and cool temperatures
late in the week. The 12Z ECMWF does not show this pattern.
However the 00Z ECMWF picked up this feature where before there
was a ridge. So there is growing confidence that another wet wave
will swing across the region late in the week.

Templer

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected overnight. Scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm may lead to brief reductions in VSBY when
passing directly over a terminal location. Light and variable
winds will continue tonight, but may temporarily become gusty in
and hear steadier shower activity. Maliawco

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for MTZ136-137.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
126 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 ENE ZORTMAN          47.96N 108.31W
09/01/2016  M60 MPH          PHILLIPS           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MALTA 35S /MTMAL/.

&&

AEH