Lake Wind Advisory 21, NWS Glasgow, MT

620 
WWUS75 KGGW 232029
NPWGGW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

...GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
DIRECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...INCLUDING FORT PECK LAKE.

MTZ016-017-021>023-240400-
/O.CON.KGGW.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160524T0400Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FORT PECK
229 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS WILL MAKE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE ROUGH 
  AND HAZARDOUS...AND COULD RESULT IN HIGH WAVES WHICH MAY TIP 
  OR SWAMP SMALLER CRAFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOATERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING ONTO FORT PECK
LAKE. FOR YOUR PERSONAL SAFETY...AVOID THE OPEN WATERS. STAY
CLOSE TO SHORE OR AROUND PROTECTED AREAS.

&&

$$

301 
WWUS75 KGGW 240342 AAA
NPWGGW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

...DIMINISHED WINDS NOW OVER FORT PECK LAKE...

MTZ016-017-021>023-240445-
/O.CAN.KGGW.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160524T0400Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
942 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

WITH A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD AND THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING...AREA WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 10 MPH AND NO LONGER
POSE A THREAT TO WATERCRAFT ON FORT PECK LAKE.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
1004 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue...

Sent a later update tonight to expire the Lake Wind Advisory for
Fort Peck Lake with areas winds now below 15 mph and falling. With
a return of gusty winds expected for Monday, another Lake Wind
Advisory will likely be needed.   BMickelson

Sent an early update this evening, merely to extend the time on
the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Some area wind
observations are still in the 20G30 mph range while a few others
have begun to diminish. Have extended it to 10 PM and will re-
visit closer to that time for cancellation.  BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: Cooler weather will continue with
the presence of a persisting upper trough over the region through
the midweek. This system will also help provide dynamic forcing
for ascent and thus continue to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Overall storms are expected to be weak and contain
little moisture.

The other item of concern will be how to deal with the lake wind
advisory across Fort Peck Lake. While winds are expected to again
reach criteria for tomorrow, decided to wait on issuance to keep
the messaging simpler. Evening shift can evaluate existing
headline and decide what to do overnight with regard to tomorrow
after assessing 00z guidance. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...

Going forecast was in good shape with just some tweaks made
toward current guidance early in the period. TFJ

Previous discussion... The entire extended forecast period is
complicated with a messy, disorganized weather pattern. Off-and-on
scattered chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms would
be the best way to describe it.

A large-scale general or overall trough stretches over the western
states and the high plains regions. Some smaller-scale embedded
short-wave troughs and/or small low pressure centers meander
around the neighborhood of the bigger trough.

This predominance of some version of low pressure influence will
simply add to the multiple forecast periods of northeast Montana not
quite being free from the threat of precipitation. Consequently,
model data consensus is not extremely helpful for confidence in
timing and placement of the resulting rain showers and
thunderstorms, other than to imply scattered, disorganized
chances, especially Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...

Synopsis: An upper low continues to spin around the Montana,
Alberta and Saskatchewan triple point. This will continue the
isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm threat from 20Z-03Z.
Otherwise VFR.

Winds: Winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots from the southwest
with a few higher gusts during the day on Monday, creating some
runway crosswind concerns.

Hickford/Proton

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1033 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

MTZ016>027-059>062-240445-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
1033 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON MONDAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR
THE WATERS OF FORT PECK LAKE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.