Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL METROPLEX TERMINALS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THESE STORMS TO IMPACT THE METRO SITES WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z. FTW AND AFW MAY EVEN HAVE THUNDER JUST PRIOR TO 00Z AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TARRANT COUNTY. THESE
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SO THESE HAZARDS ARE
LIKELY. WACO WILL ALSO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 04Z AS STORMS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF HAMILTON AND BOSQUE
COUNTY. ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO WACO AROUND
SUNRISE AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT CEILINGS
AROUND 5000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KNOTS ALONG
WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHWEST OF
ALL TAF SITES SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE FROM THE MORNING UPDATE REGARDING THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE
MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU FIELD FROM
NEAR DEL RIO NORTHEAST TO BROWNWOOD AND INTO EASTLAND CO. THE
DRYLINE IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THIS AREA ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN WEAK. CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG RIGHT ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE IS STILL SOME INHIBITION TO OVERCOME BUT THIS
SHOULD BECOME QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS RATHER
WEAK...BUT WITH ERODING CIN AND AT LEAST SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 4-5 PM MAINLY WEST OF I-35.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ORGANIZED COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG ANY OUTFLOWS AND THESE TOO WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE. ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT.

CONCERNING TORNADO POTENTIAL...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER MODEST SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN ANY AREAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS CAN
BE LOCALLY BACKED WHICH MAY BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH NEW
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

POPS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20...ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
DRYLINE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WE
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS A DECENT
SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY ARE OBVIOUSLY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL
BROADBRUSH 40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A LITTLE BREAK ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES
IN. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...AS BEST WE CAN TELL...THE HIGHEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    71  87  69  81  61 /  30  20  50  40  10
WACO                70  86  69  81  63 /  50  20  30  40  20
PARIS               69  84  67  79  58 /  20  20  50  40  10
DENTON              70  87  67  78  58 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY            70  86  67  79  58 /  30  20  50  40  10
DALLAS              71  87  69  81  62 /  30  20  50  40  10
TERRELL             70  86  68  79  61 /  30  20  40  40  10
CORSICANA           70  86  68  81  63 /  40  20  30  40  20
TEMPLE              70  87  69  82  64 /  60  20  20  40  30
MINERAL WELLS       68  88  66  78  58 /  10  30  50  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

79/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111245-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALL STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND ALSO ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO
HILLSBORO TO LAMPASAS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXPAND TO
INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO GOLDTHWAITE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
ELSEWHERE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 5 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             WEATHERFORD             32.77N  97.80W
05/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             2 S WEATHERFORD         32.74N  97.80W
05/10/2016  E0.88 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             WEATHERFORD             32.77N  97.80W
05/10/2016  M1.50 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WEATHERFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             HUDSON OAKS             32.75N  97.70W
05/10/2016  E0.88 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S PRIDDY              31.64N  98.52W
05/10/2016                   MILLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 16, 2 MILES SOUTH OF PRIDDY CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W CLIFTON             31.78N  97.68W
05/10/2016  E60 MPH          BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            55 TO 60 MPH WIND AT FM 182 AND FM 219