Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR ALL MODES TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST OF A
BONHAM...CORSICANA... HEARNE LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 124 FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...EASTLAND...STEPHENS
AND YOUNG COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE STRONG WAA SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH OTHER DISCRETE CELLS
FIRING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY. ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH
MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE
OR OCCUR IN STORM CLUSTERS AS LARGE- SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS EAST OF EAST OF I-35/35E TONIGHT. MESO-
LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...CONSIDERING MOIST SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW LCL/S AND CLOUD BASES. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THREATS AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY
FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR HYDROLOGIC WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS. THE CURRENT MID LEVEL TROUGH NEGATIVELY ROTATING
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT
PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TX WILL ALSO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND EXIT
OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRIEFLY
MARK AND END TO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL MAINLY COOL HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS FRONT.

ANOTHER STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THINGS THIS TIME AROUND...AS A STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING
VERY HUMID AND MOIST AIR WITH COOL AND MOIST AIR REMAINS SETTLED
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVEN BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LIFT QUICKLY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL EVENT...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION...SO
A FEW ELEVATED STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HAIL AND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR SEMI-DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY GET TIME TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER
FROM THESE CURRENT ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AS WELL.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    65  80  59  78  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
WACO                64  83  59  80  58 /  60  10   5  10  50
PARIS               65  78  58  79  56 /  80  30   5   5  40
DENTON              61  79  55  76  55 /  40   5   5   5  40
MCKINNEY            63  79  57  77  56 /  60  10   5   5  40
DALLAS              65  82  60  79  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
TERRELL             65  81  58  79  58 /  70  20   5   5  40
CORSICANA           66  83  61  80  60 /  80  20   5  10  40
TEMPLE              64  83  61  81  60 /  60  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS       58  79  55  75  55 /  30   5   5  10  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO GAINESVILLE. STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE AS A DRYLINE INVADES FROM THE
WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE IS SITUATED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. REGARDLESS OF
COVERAGE...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL SEVERE
WEATHER MODES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...TRAINING OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR EAST OF A BONHAM...CORSICANA...
HEARNE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONGOING RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE AGGRAVATED BY ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR LINE
SEGMENTS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS SHOULD SHIFT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH STORM COVERAGE ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...AND THE
RESULTING BOUNDARY MAY LINGER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY. A LACK OF FORCING MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY...THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STRONGER STORMS
WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH 10 PM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO GAINESVILLE LINE. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             TOM BEAN                33.52N  96.48W
04/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TOM BEAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             MARQUEZ                 31.23N  96.27W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       LEON               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MARQUEZ.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             JEWETT                  31.37N  96.15W
04/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       LEON               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN JEWETT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ130-132>134-143>145-157-159-292100-
JOHNSON TX-MCLENNAN TX-HAMILTON TX-CORYELL TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
ELLIS TX-ERATH TX-SOMERVELL TX-
307 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS...SOUTHEASTERN
ERATH...SOMERVELL...SOUTHERN JOHNSON...BOSQUE...HILL...WESTERN
MCLENNAN...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND NORTHEASTERN CORYELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CLIFTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WACO...GATESVILLE...HILLSBORO...MCGREGOR...CLIFTON...GLEN ROSE...WHITNEY...
ITASCA...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...CRAWFORD...BLUM...IREDELL...CRANFILLS
GAP...COVINGTON...CARL'S CORNER...LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK...DINOSAUR
VALLEY STATE PARK...MERIDIAN STATE PARK AND GHOLSON.

LAT...LON 3225 9795 3223 9794 3225 9791 3225 9687
      3135 9740 3143 9785 3225 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 186DEG 27KT 3179 9756

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             5 N CLIFTON             31.85N  97.58W
04/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             RIO VISTA               32.23N  97.38W
04/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO NEAR RIO
            VISTA.