River Flood Warning 72, NWS Fort Worth, TX

861 
WGUS84 KFWD 211437
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
937 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following areas in Texas...
 
  West Fork Trinity River At Lake Worth Affecting Tarrant County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC439-211507-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-160422T1200Z/
/FLWT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
937 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The West Fork Trinity River At Lake Worth.
* At 0900 AM Thursday the stage was 596.88 feet.
* Flood stage is 597 feet.
* Forecast...The lake is expected to remain between 596.5 feet and 
  597.0 feet for the next several days.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING'S MCS CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF 4AM. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED ELEVATED
AND MOVED ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E AXIS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
25 KTS HAS PROVIDED MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MOSTLY DISPLACED TO OUR WEST WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LOCATED. HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...BUT THE STRONG
WIND THREAT IS QUITE LOW SINCE DOWNDRAFTS WILL NOT BE VERY
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT IN THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
OUTFLOW WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
STILL A VERY SMALL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY AREA OF THE LINE THAT IS
ABLE TO CATCH UP TO THE OUTFLOW AND INGEST MORE BUOYANT SURFACE
PARCELS. THE MOST PREFERENTIAL AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IS SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS GENERAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT OUTRUNS THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE SOUTHEAST PUSH WILL BE AIDED BY A VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BIT DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY...AND WITH DEWPOINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOULD ANY FOG DEVELOP...IT WILL MIX OUT FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROLLS ACROSS MEXICO LEADING TO ACTIVITY IN EXTREME
WEST TEXAS AND ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 MPH EXPECTED SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-
WIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS.

NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF LOW
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RAPID SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW NOTED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KTS
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BENEATH A CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ADVECTED EASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT COMBINED WITH VERY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH MODELS
ADVERTISING 4000-5000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. IF ANY STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEY WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD SOLUTION TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WHICH
WHICH KEEP THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS ASCENT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR ELIMINATING AN INCREDIBLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS
NORTHWARD TREND...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION MAY IMPACT OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY SINCE THE CAP WOULD HOLD IN PLACE AND STORMS WOULD BE
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO
EXTRACT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MASS FIELDS...YET ALONE THE SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY WILL NOT BE THE END OF OUR STORM CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL
DRYLINE CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN
IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A NEARLY ENDLESS SUPPLY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
TUESDAY'S LOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BE SURE
TO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST WITH SOME POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTH
TEXAS BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR -SHRA VCTS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. FOR THE DFW METROPLEX...EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 08-11Z AND 09-13Z FOR KACT. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THE TAF SITES WITH THESE STORMS. BEHIND THE
RAIN...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT SOME AIRPORTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION KEEPING NORTH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    78  57  82  58  83 /  60   5   0   0   0
WACO                77  54  81  55  82 /  60  10   0   0   0
PARIS               75  54  79  54  79 /  40   5   0   0   0
DENTON              74  54  81  53  81 /  50   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            75  54  80  53  79 /  60   5   0   0   0
DALLAS              78  57  82  59  83 /  60   5   0   0   0
TERRELL             77  55  81  56  80 /  60   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA           75  56  81  57  83 /  60  10   0   0   0
TEMPLE              78  57  82  55  81 /  60  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       77  52  82  53  81 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

30/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-220900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
355 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WHERE THERE IS A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ118-119-210915-
DALLAS TX-TARRANT TX-
312 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS AND TARRANT COUNTIES UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 312 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RICHLAND HILLS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALLAS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GARLAND...IRVING...GRAND PRAIRIE...
MESQUITE...CARROLLTON...RICHARDSON...MANSFIELD...ROWLETT...EULESS...DESOTO...
BEDFORD...GRAPEVINE...CEDAR HILL...HALTOM CITY...KELLER...COPPELL AND
DUNCANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9652 3255 9652 3255 9755 3299 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 276DEG 30KT 3278 9722

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ130-141-143-210915-
COMANCHE TX-HAMILTON TX-ERATH TX-
323 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMANCHE AND ERATH COUNTIES UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 321 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DE LEON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE...COMANCHE...DUBLIN...DE LEON...HICO...GUSTINE...HUCKABAY AND
MORGAN MILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 9847 3251 9847 3251 9807 3209 9786
      3202 9800 3193 9794 3197 9811 3192 9821
      3184 9816 3169 9846 3172 9850 3170 9867
      3208 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 282DEG 29KT 3215 9845

30