River Flood Warning 30, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO MOVING VERY
LITTLE...AS BEST HEIGHT FALLS NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINED
SITUATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND NW
GULF OF MEXICO. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY ASSIST MOVING
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE
ROTATING NORTHWEST FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OCCURS
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. LATER FRIDAY MORNING
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONGER IMPULSE WILL SPOKE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES AND ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH ON FRIDAY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT ROTATES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UP INTO OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE
CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME DRY-SLOTTING ALOFT COULD OCCUR AND LIMIT ACTIVITY A LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND
SHEAR AND ANY INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT AS
IT ROTATES UP INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER
NOT ONLY ON STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF WIND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...BUT ALSO ON INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
INCREASING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE APPROACHING THE COOLER
500MB TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH THESE AREAS CAN PARTIALLY BREAK OUT FROM
CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...THE MAX SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG SE OF AN ATHENS TO CAMERON OR TEMPLE LINE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM CERTAINLY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER IF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR OCCURS
ACROSS THIS AREA. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES VERY
CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MORE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONTAINED PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20 IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE AND WHERE RESIDUAL LIFT WILL PERSIST...WITH LOWER
POPS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY REALLY WANE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND ARKLATEX AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN LITERALLY SHOWS A
FUJIWARA TYPE OF PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE OLD SYSTEM
LEAVING AND THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY ESE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OR DRYLINE
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR E/NE COUNTIES WHERE LIFT WILL
COINCIDE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT
GOOD ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY IN THE DEEP W/SW FLOW
SOUTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER QUICKLY INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH EVEN SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE A DRY AND WARM START NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DID GO WARMER THAN THE
AVERAGED SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS WARMING WELL INTO
THE 80S. ANOTHER DRYLINE INTRUSION OCCURS TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM AND CAPPED
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND DO NO EXPECT ANY LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE TUESDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT MID-LATE WEEK MAY ACTUALLY LEND TO LOW STORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE
RAPID MOVING SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOOD ISSUES. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND THE LAST FEW HOURS AS LIGHT
RAIN LINGERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS METRO TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RAIN
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  66  56  70  56 /  50  80  60  30   5
WACO, TX              55  68  54  72  55 /  50  90  50  20   5
PARIS, TX             56  66  56  69  55 /  50  70  60  40  10
DENTON, TX            53  63  54  70  53 /  50  80  60  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          54  65  55  69  54 /  50  70  60  30  10
DALLAS, TX            55  67  56  70  57 /  50  80  60  30   5
TERRELL, TX           56  67  56  69  55 /  50  80  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         58  70  57  71  57 /  50  80  40  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  67  55  74  55 /  60  80  40  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  63  51  72  52 /  50  80  60  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

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