Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Fort Worth, TX

800 
WWUS84 KFWD 021740
RFWFWD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE
TO GLEN ROSE TO COMANCHE...

.STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141-030100-
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.W.0006.160302T1800Z-160303T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-
1140 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO GLEN ROSE
TO COMANCHE...

* AFFECTED AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO GLEN ROSE 
  TO COMANCHE. 

* TIMING...12 PM THROUGH 7 PM CST TODAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

* RH...15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FIRES THAT START HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY VEGETATION CAN CONTRIBUTE
TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. AVOID ALL OUTSIDE BURNING AND WELDING
TODAY. DO NOT TOSS LIT CIGARETTE BUTTS OUTSIDE. REPORT WILD FIRES
TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE.

&&

$$

PALMER

958 
WWUS84 KFWD 030051
RFWFWD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016

...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO GLEN ROSE TO COMANCHE WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT...

TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141-030200-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160303T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-
651 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016

...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CST THIS EVENING 
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE
TO GLEN ROSE TO COMANCHE...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THUS
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

78.JG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICK TO SETTLE
DOWN THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM AS SCHEDULED. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE RURAL LOW
LYING AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH 15-20 MPH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WARM CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
DAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.

A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS MONDAY AND PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THOUGH THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. THE
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING...INSTABILITY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ETC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS OF THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  70  56  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              42  72  57  75  43 /   0   0   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             39  66  50  69  42 /   0   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            40  69  52  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          38  68  53  70  42 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            44  70  57  72  47 /   0   0   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           41  69  56  72  44 /   0   0   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         42  70  57  74  46 /   0   0   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            42  72  57  77  45 /   0   0   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  75  51  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
728 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
728 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.