Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Fort Worth, TX

566 
WGUS74 KFWD 171214
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

TXC027-171430-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-160817T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BELL TX-
714 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL BELL COUNTY...

AT 711 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN NEAR MORGAN'S POINT RESORT. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE WATER RUNOFF
AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO
RAPIDLY RISING WATER. SOME LOW-WATER CROSSINGS MAY FLOOD AND BECOME
IMPASSABLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MORGAN'S POINT RESORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 9764 3117 9771 3132 9742 3125 9738
      3098 9734

$$

79

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
355 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A compact MCV continues to rotate between Burnet and Lampasas this
morning. Thunderstorms with heavy rain have already produced over
an inch of rain in a short period of time. The MCV should slowly
lift northward through the pre-dawn hours with rain and
thunderstorms affecting much of the southwest quarter of the CWA
through the morning. We have decided to issue a small Flash Flood
Watch which will include the counties of Lampasas, Bell,
Mclennan, Coryell, Falls and Milam. These counties saw wetting
rains over the past few days and this additional activity could
result in flash flooding. Although the rain associated with the
MCV should shift to the north this afternoon, the southern zones
will remain moist and unstable. Therefore, additional activity is
expected this afternoon and tonight. For now we will run the Flash
Flood Watch through 12Z Thursday.

Weak but persistent upper level troughing will remain over North
and Central Texas through tonight. Broad large scale lift along
with an extremely moist and somewhat unstable environment will
produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again
today. Since the warm front has finally lifted north of the
region, precipitation will most likely spread much farther north
and northwest today than the past couple of days. Heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be the primary hazards.

North and Central Texas will remain moist and marginally unstable
through the weekend which will warrant the mention of showers and
thunderstorms. The best storm chances should shift to the northern
half of the region late in the week through the weekend as an
upper level trough approaches from the Central Rockies. The upper
trough axis will move across the Central Plains on Saturday and
allow a cold front to cross the Red River. Lift along the front
will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front
is progged to linger across the region through Monday before
lifting into Oklahoma on Tuesday.

It is hard to believe that this is late August in North and
Central Texas with the abundant cloud cover and below normal
temperatures. This pattern should continue for the most part
through early next week with highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s
and lows in the 70s. The northern zones should even see some lows
in the upper 60s behind the cold front early next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/
MVFR/IFR cigs have spread into all TAF sites as of 04z as low-
level moisture surges into the area. Expect a continued
deterioration of cigs with all sites becoming IFR in the next few
hours. Rain coverage should continue to increase across Central
TX near Waco from 06-09z and spread towards the DFW Metroplex
shortly thereafter. In addition, have bumped up the timing of
VCSH/RA and introduced some decreased vsbys at all sites through
the Wednesday morning hours. While the potential for thunder in
the Metroplex is not zero, feel that lightning is going to be too
limited to warrant a mention of TS in the TAFs at this time. A few
in-cloud lightning strikes have been noted with activity in
Central TX near Waco, which is not surprising since this activity
was in a region of slightly more favorable instability.

It's difficult to say how long rain showers will persist on
Wednesday but they could linger well into the afternoon hours for
some locations. MVFR conditions should persist through most of the
day at the DFW Metroplex sites with IFR prevailing at Waco. A lull
in rain activity seems likely on Wednesday evening but low cigs
will hold strong with IFR conditions likely once again on
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  73  84  74  89 /  60  40  60  50  40
Waco                82  73  86  74  91 /  80  50  40  40  20
Paris               82  70  83  71  88 /  80  50  60  50  50
Denton              82  71  83  72  89 /  60  40  60  50  50
McKinney            83  71  83  73  88 /  60  40  60  50  40
Dallas              83  74  84  75  90 /  60  40  60  50  40
Terrell             83  72  84  73  89 /  80  50  60  40  40
Corsicana           82  73  85  73  90 /  80  50  50  30  30
Temple              82  72  86  73  91 /  80  50  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       83  71  83  71  90 /  50  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ156>160-174.

&&

24/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-180900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
350 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO MARLIN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
HOWEVER...WILL YIELD A THREAT FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TIMELY REPORTS
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE APPRECIATED.

24-BAIN