Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Fort Worth, TX

770 
WGUS74 KFWD 032342
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

TXC161-293-032351-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160603T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIMESTONE TX-FREESTONE TX-
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND
SOUTHWESTERN FREESTONE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3138 9632 3135 9632 3133 9637 3153 9648
      3162 9630 3143 9620

$$

BAIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
329 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar loops and surface observations show the primary surface
low--which is now quite elongated and washed out in the pressure
field--just west of Comanche County, and tracking steadily towards
the south. With a bit of clearing today, buoyancy has increased
and MLCAPE values around the region are on the order of a few
hundred to 1000 J/kg early this afternoon. Combined with just a
bit of surface convergence around the aforementioned low, this has
been enough to pop off some isolated to widely scattered showers
(with a few embedded lightning strikes). These will continue to
pivot around the low center, but should wane with nocturnal losses
in instability.

The additional feature we are watching is an area of convection
which initially developed near the Upper Texas Coast, and continues
to steadily track northward around the periphery of the upper-
level circulation center. Showers and storms associated with this
complex have entered our far southeastern zones. The HRRRX
(experimental HRRR) seems to have a decent handle on the evolution
of this system, and have followed it for the short-term portion of
this forecast issuance. Likely PoPs will continue for areas south
and east of a Sherman to Weatherford to Comanche line through this
evening. Expect locally heavy rainfall within the stronger cells,
but overall rainfall efficiency has decreased somewhat compared to
the recent deluges.

Overnight, anticipate the remnants of this complex, with
generally just light to moderate showers, to track into the
remainder of the CWA, before activity gradually wanes into the
morning hours. The Flash Flood Watch continues until midnight
tonight and--barring any unforeseen complications to the
forecast-- we should be in good shape to put an end to it then.

Drier air will finally begin to make its big push through North
and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon, but we will have to contend
with one more day of isolated to possibly scattered convection.
We should be precip-free area-wide Sunday and at least through
Thursday next week under northerly flow aloft, with high
temperatures taking a jump towards 90 degrees.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

The slow moving upper low is expected to continue to drift south
through this evening. The surface low is located just southwest of
Comanche county this afternoon with some breaks in the cloud cover
noted across North Texas. Conditions have become VFR across much
of the area. The breaks in the cloud cover will result in some
pockets of instability. This should lead to a scattering of
showers and a few thunderstorms through the late afternoon and
evening hours. Will continue with a VCTS at all sites from 20Z
through early evening. Otherwise...the bulk of the precipitation
chances should begin to shift farther south after tonight. IFR
conditions are expected again during the early morning hours on
Saturday with improving conditions later in the day.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  85  67  85  64 /  50  40  20   5   0
Waco                67  82  67  85  64 /  70  50  30  10   0
Paris               67  81  65  83  62 /  60  50  20   5   0
Denton              66  84  65  85  60 /  50  30  10   5   0
McKinney            67  83  66  84  61 /  50  40  20   5   0
Dallas              68  85  68  86  65 /  60  40  20   5   0
Terrell             68  82  67  84  63 /  60  50  20   5   0
Corsicana           68  81  67  85  64 /  70  50  30  10   5
Temple              66  81  67  84  63 /  70  60  30  20   5
Mineral Wells       66  84  65  85  60 /  40  30  10   5   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

91/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
327 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO CONTINUOUS RAIN. THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN