Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
The primary aviation weather concern Tonight through Monday
morning will be timing convection. Clusters of storms will
continue across the Metroplex TAF sites through sunset. Impacts
will be brief with mainly heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty
winds. Storms should weaken with the loss of surface heating.
However...the storms approaching from the northwest should
organize into a convective complex with a developing low level
jet overnight. These storms should impact the Metroplex TAF sites
between about 05Z and 10Z. Storms should weaken as they move south
and will have less of an impact on Waco overnight/Monday morning
so will just carry VCTS between 07Z and 10Z. The complex of storms
will exit the region before midday Monday.

Some brief MVFR ceilings are likely with and behind the storm
complex overnight/Monday morning, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected Tonight through Monday.

A southeast wind will continue between 6 and 12 knots except for
some strong and gusty winds in and near thunderstorms.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
Another week, but the forecast remains the same. Each afternoon,
there will be showers and thunderstorms developing across the
western half of Texas and eventually moving east. Over the next
several days, we will likely see more time without rain than with
rain, but the rain chances will not go away until late in the week
and possibly the weekend. Severe chances this week are lower than
usual for this time of year, with locally heavy rainfall being the
primary threat late Tuesday and Wednesday.

For today and Memorial Day, the forecast should sound familiar.
Thunderstorms are once again ongoing in the Texas panhandle, as
well as just east of the caprock escarpment along a dry line.
These storms will eventually form this evening's mesoscale
complex, and will once again move through much of the area during
the overnight hours. Ahead of the dry line, there is some
destabilization going on with the sunshine and abundant low level
moisture, as dew points remain in the mid 60s. Surface based CAPE
is running from 1000 to 3500 J/kg across North and Central Texas,
which means we could see a few storms develop before 6 PM. Even
so, the chance for rain will increase after 9 PM for most areas.
Memorial Day itself will not be a washout, as the overnight storms
will diminish early in the day, leaving most of Monday with a mix
of sunshine and clouds, before the cycle repeats itself.

Attention then turns to the midweek system, which will likely have
more of an impact on many of us. Low level and mid level moisture
will still be with us by Tuesday night and Wednesday, while upper
level lift will increase as an upper level low moves closer to
North and Central Texas at the same time the next front gets here.
All of this will combine for higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Moisture, lift, and instability will be in place,
while the wind shear will not necessarily be favorable for
widespread severe storms. However, the lack of wind shear will
allow for storms to be slow moving and efficient rainfall
producers. If the current forecast holds true, this would produce
a fairly large area of 2 inch rainfall across portions of the
region. This has the potential to cause some flooding issues in
North Texas, mainly from the rate of rainfall, and not necessarily
the storm total amounts of rainfall. As more details are known,
there is the potential for watches being issued. Since the heaviest
rainfall will likely be tied to the exact positions of the surface
and upper air features, confidence is too low at this time to
pinpoint areas for any flood watches.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  87  70  85  69 /  50  30  30  50  60
Waco                69  87  68  86  69 /  50  30  30  50  50
Paris               67  84  67  82  68 /  30  20  20  40  50
Denton              66  86  68  84  68 /  50  30  30  50  70
McKinney            66  85  67  86  68 /  40  30  20  40  60
Dallas              69  88  71  85  70 /  40  30  30  50  60
Terrell             69  86  68  86  68 /  40  20  20  40  50
Corsicana           69  86  69  85  69 /  40  20  20  40  50
Temple              68  84  68  84  70 /  50  30  30  50  50
Mineral Wells       67  85  67  84  67 /  60  30  30  50  70

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE UNSTABLE
AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS MAY APPROACH NORTH TEXAS. IF THESE STORMS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...SOME COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE
SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 SW ANNA               33.33N  96.59W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ANNA               33.33N  96.59W
05/29/2016  E65 MPH          COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MPH WIND REPORTED 2 MILES SW OF ANNA. SMALL TREE
            LIMBS DOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             3 NE MCKINNEY           33.23N  96.58W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY AT
            THE INTERSECTION OF FM 455 AND TX 5.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
805 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             5 S TOM BEAN            33.45N  96.48W
05/29/2016  E2.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCH SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF TOM BEAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             SAVOY                   33.60N  96.36W
05/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       FANNIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 1.75 INCH HAIL IN SAVOY, TX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ121-300215-
KAUFMAN-
850 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY...

AT 850 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER COMBINE...OR
NEAR SEAGOVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRELL...SEAGOVILLE...FORNEY...KAUFMAN...CRANDALL...COMBINE...TALTY...POST
OAK BEND CITY...ROSSER...OAK RIDGE AND LAWRENCE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 487 AND 503.

LAT...LON 3245 9647 3244 9648 3248 9651 3250 9650
      3251 9651 3251 9650 3253 9651 3254 9653
      3255 9652 3268 9652 3281 9643 3282 9608
      3281 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 221DEG 18KT 3261 9649

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