Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Fort Worth, TX

699 
WGUS74 KFWD 270752
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

TXC035-193-333-270801-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-160527T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOSQUE TX-HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL BOSQUE...HAMILTON AND
NORTHEASTERN MILLS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM CDT...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3168 9847 3213 9752 3202 9749 3201 9745
      3203 9743 3198 9738 3193 9744 3189 9736
      3189 9737 3187 9739 3185 9735 3169 9768
      3171 9770 3140 9829 3152 9847

$$

58

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
825 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch
219 for western counties of north and central TX. Storms are
firing in this region within an enhanced area of lift associated
with the upper trough over NM/CO. Storms will have the potential
of becoming severe for at least the next couple of hours.
Supercells have already exhibited impressive structure based on
RADAR appearance. It looks like these storms will soon be merging
into a large cluster, possible propagating east to the I-35
corridor prior to midnight. The threat for severe storms should
decrease as storms approach I-35 later this evening, but will
need to be watched for lingering damaging wind potential if it
becomes an organized MCS. Otherwise, another round of storms will
be possible again by tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere recovers
and the main axis of the upper trough crosses the region.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 707 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
The upper trough over the Four-Corners region will work its way
east into the Plains tomorrow. The system will continue to spread
good ascent across much of Texas and OK over the next 24 hours.
Convection across most of North Texas has been impeded by the slow
moving MCS across southeast TX. However, additional storms are
approaching from the west associated with the next disturbance
lifting northeast around the southeast quadrant of the upper
trough. These storms may weaken as the approach the Metroplex and
the Waco area, but should hold together long enough to justify a
VCTS for the 03-07Z timeframe.

Another round of convection will be possible Friday afternoon as
the trough axis reaches the Southern Plains, before activity
shifts east of the region Friday evening.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
southeast sections of the forecast area through late afternoon.
These storms are in an a very moist and unstable environment and
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of strong winds.

The remainder of North and Central Texas is currently in a region
of subsidence as evident by the 18Z FWD sounding. There is still
very moist air in place across the region and some scattered
showers will be ongoing through late afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop west/southwest of the region on the dryline.
These storms should lift northeast off the dryline into western
North Texas before sunset. The extent and severity of
thunderstorms across the region will be very dependent on how much
the atmosphere can recover and how fast the cap breaks. Since
large scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
upper low will continue to increase, we feel the cap will
eventually break and that storms will increase in coverage from
west to east through the evening. Any storms that develop this
evening will have a potential to become severe, especially west
of the Interstate 35 corridor. Damaging wind and hail will be the
primary hazards. However, there will be an isolated tornado
threat generally west of the US 281 corridor through mid evening.

The most likely scenario is that evening storms will develop into
a complex that will move east/southeast across the region
overnight. Overall, the severe threat overnight will be fairly
low, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase.

By Friday morning the complex of storms should move through the
east/southeast zones. The primary hazard with these storms will be
from heavy rainfall and flooding. Depending on how fast the storms
end on Friday morning...there should be a lull in activity from
late morning through early afternoon. However, storm chances will
increase again Friday afternoon as a final piece of upper level
energy associated with the upper system rotates across the region.
There will be a potential for a few severe storms along with heavy
rainfall Friday afternoon. But again, it will all depend on how
much recovery can take place after morning convection.

We will leave a flash flood watch in effect through Friday
afternoon south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens.
This area will likely see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday
afternoon. There should even be a few spots that receive over 6
inches of rainfall before Friday evening.

Storm chances will end from west to east Friday afternoon/evening
with the departing upper trough. However, North and Central Texas
will remain in an active weather pattern through the Memorial
weekend and into next week as another upper trough develops across
the southwestern CONUS. Although it will be difficult to pinpoint
the timing and locations for storms any particular day,
atmospheric moisture will remain high through the week and any
perturbations in the flow could result in storms, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Therefore, we will leave
chance pops every day next week.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  83  71  89  71 /  70  70  40  20  10
Waco                72  83  71  88  70 /  60  70  40  20  10
Paris               70  78  68  85  69 /  70  80  60  30  10
Denton              70  82  68  88  68 /  70  70  30  20  10
McKinney            71  81  69  87  69 /  70  80  40  20  10
Dallas              72  83  72  89  72 /  70  70  40  20  10
Terrell             72  81  70  87  70 /  70  80  50  20  10
Corsicana           72  82  71  88  70 /  60  80  50  30  10
Temple              72  83  70  87  70 /  60  70  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       70  86  67  88  69 /  70  70  20  10  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271300-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...BUT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPORARY LULLS IN HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY EVENING.

SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MEMORIAL DAY THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF I-35.

CARLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ133-144-145-270430-
JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
1037 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON...BOSQUE AND
NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1037 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLEN ROSE TO NEAR MERIDIAN
TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRANFILLS GAP. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEBURNE...KEENE...ALVARADO...VENUS...WHITNEY...ITASCA...GRANDVIEW...
MERIDIAN...BLUM...IREDELL...COVINGTON...LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK...CLEBURNE
STATE PARK...MERIDIAN STATE PARK...RIO VISTA...WALNUT SPRINGS AND
MORGAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 9798 3220 9764 3220 9762 3230 9761
      3251 9709 3226 9709 3196 9722 3182 9732
      3179 9785 3199 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 274DEG 32KT 3217 9767 3199 9770 3185 9791

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ142-270445-
MILLS TX-
1049 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULLIN...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDTHWAITE...MULLIN AND THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 765 AND RANCH
ROAD 45.

LAT...LON 3161 9878 3169 9876 3172 9850 3141 9827
      3123 9856 3127 9863 3133 9859 3131 9864
      3137 9865 3135 9871 3139 9869 3143 9873
      3138 9878 3141 9878 3141 9885 3144 9887
      3143 9893 3146 9894 3144 9897 3147 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 229DEG 25KT 3144 9878

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1052 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ103-104-119-270430-
DALLAS TX-DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
1052 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN...DALLAS AND
SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1051 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELLER TO NEAR PANTEGO TO NEAR RENDON.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHTHESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALLAS...PLANO...GARLAND...IRVING...GRAND PRAIRIE...MESQUITE...MCKINNEY...
CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...RICHARDSON...LEWISVILLE...ALLEN...FLOWER
MOUND...ROWLETT...DESOTO...GRAPEVINE...CEDAR HILL...WYLIE AND COPPELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9652 3255 9652 3255 9704 3297 9702
      3298 9704 3299 9739 3317 9738 3318 9678
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 248DEG 42KT 3291 9720 3278 9712 3258 9720

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ134-270430-
ELLIS TX-
1106 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1106 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MIDLOTHIAN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND PRAIRIE...MANSFIELD...CEDAR HILL...LANCASTER...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...RED OAK...OVILLA...VENUS...FERRIS...PALMER...
OAK LEAF...MAYPEARL...ALMA...GARRETT AND PECAN HILL.

LAT...LON 3228 9648 3226 9708 3255 9709 3255 9653
      3251 9650 3251 9651 3250 9650 3248 9651
      3245 9650 3241 9644 3235 9645 3233 9643
      3233 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 272DEG 34KT 3249 9701

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ143>145-270500-
HAMILTON TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOSQUE...WEST CENTRAL HILL AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1124 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CRANFILLS GAP...OR 12 MILES WEST OF CLIFTON...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIFTON...HAMILTON...MERIDIAN...HICO...VALLEY MILLS...EVANT...IREDELL...
CRANFILLS GAP...MERIDIAN STATE PARK...WALNUT SPRINGS AND MORGAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
FORT WORTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 9816 3192 9821 3202 9800 3201 9799
      3220 9764 3217 9761 3214 9751 3202 9736
      3192 9743 3189 9737 3188 9740 3184 9734
      3184 9729 3178 9734 3175 9729 3159 9761
      3171 9769 3142 9827 3168 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 262DEG 61KT 3172 9778

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ145-270530-
HILL TX-
1152 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILL COUNTY UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1152 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...WHITNEY...ITASCA...BYNUM...CARL'S CORNER...LAKE WHITNEY STATE
PARK...ABBOTT...MERTENS AND AQUILLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
FORT WORTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9733 3184 9728 3184 9733 3188 9739
      3189 9736 3190 9737 3194 9743 3197 9738
      3198 9738 3199 9741 3203 9743 3201 9748
      3206 9749 3219 9703 3206 9694 3207 9689
      3197 9683 3175 9729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 265DEG 35KT 3192 9737

BAIN