Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

893 
WWUS53 KFSD 181803
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
103 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

MNC081-083-181830-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-160818T1830Z/
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-
103 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN AND CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES...

AT 103 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ARCO...OR 19
MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN STATE PARK AROUND 125 PM CDT. 
  MARSHALL...MINNEOTA AND GHENT AROUND 130 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LYND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9580 4438 9560 4431 9629 4440 9630
      4450 9610 4461 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 246DEG 25KT 4440 9618 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DUX

046 
WWUS53 KFSD 181827
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
127 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

MNC081-083-181837-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-160818T1830Z/
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-
127 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN AND
CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 130 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SIOUX FALLS.

LAT...LON 4457 9580 4438 9560 4431 9629 4440 9630
      4450 9610 4461 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 237DEG 24KT 4440 9618 

$$

DUX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1225 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Unsettled weather expected today and tonight across the region.
Isolated to scattered high based thunderstorms will continue through
around daybreak as elevated boundary shifts through the area. Storms
will mainly be found north of I90 with only isolated chance to the
south. These storms will be relatively weak, remaining below severe
limits. Warming aloft will help shut off the convection by mid to
late morning.

This afternoon, an advancing upper level trough digs across the
northern Plains, while a cold front drops across southeast South
Dakota. Strong surface heating along with moderate instability ahead
of the front will allow thunderstorms to become likely late
afternoon through the evening hours, mainly across south central SD
into west central Minnesota. Thunderstorm chances taper off rapidly
to the southeast of this region, with only isolated chances in
northeast NE, northwest IA, and far southeast SD. While MLCAPE
values increase to around 2000 j/kg and lapse rates increase in the
area of greatest thunderstorm chances, shear is quite a bit more
marginal for severe storm support. Cannot rule out a few severe
storms in the late afternoon and evening with hail to the size of
ping pong balls and gusts to 65 mph. Main severe threat will be in
the highway 14 corridor, and extending into south central SD.
Frontal boundary hangs up over the area overnight. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will persist in the same general area, but the
severe threat will likely wane after the early morning hours.

Highs today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Strong front will continue to work through the area on Friday
morning.  As the front moves through the area, 850 hpa temps will
fall from around 20C into the mid teens.  With the cooler air mass
moving in, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers on Friday,
will be a hard time for temperatures to recover.  In fact, could see
temperatures fairly steady throughout the daytime hours. Based on
the thermal structure, it appears that limited heating into the
upper 60s will result in showers/isolated thunderstorms developing.
Once the upper trough shifts through the area on Friday night, the
precipitation chances appear to decrease.  Discounted the NAM
solution as it continues to be slower than other solutions.

Could see some scattered showers develop Saturday afternoon mainly
across southwest Minnesota into northwest Iowa due to a cold pocket
from 850-700 mb. With 850 hpa temperatures around 10C, it will be a
struggle to get temperatures to 70.

Really wasn't all that confident in cloud cover Saturday night.
Models suggest some lingering moisture, but if skies clear, would be
a great radiational night. Nam suggests the potential for fog,
especially in the east while the gfs is much drier.  For now, left
the mention out of forecast.

Expect a nice warming trend into the middle of next week.  Still
appears as though a 30-35 knot low level jet develops east of the
James River Valley Tuesday night and have focused highest pops east.
Cold front moves through the area on Wednesday with a chance of
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Convection chances are the biggest aviation concern over the
upcoming 24 hours. Early this afternoon, a frontal boundary
remains stretched across the CWA from just west of Huron southeast
into northwestern Iowa. Considerable cloud cover has limited
overall instability along the boundary.

Best chances for convection will be in the Missouri River valley
later this evening in the post-frontal environment and then in a
narrow corridor along the frontal boundary northeast of Sioux
Falls. With low confidence on storm placement later this evening
and tonight, will limit verbiage in TAF to VCTS, with focus in TAF
after the front passes later tonight.

A brief break from rain may be possible around daybreak and
through mid-morning, but there may also be increased risks of MVFR
ceilings. Rain chances will again increase towards the very end of
the valid TAF period.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Dux

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
538 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-SDZ038>040-052>061-191045-
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-PIPESTONE-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-
BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-
HANSON-MCCOOK-
538 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUST TO 65
MPH. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 7 PM.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ089-090-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ050-062>071-191045-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-
MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
538 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 9 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             GAYVILLE                42.89N 97.17W
08/16/2016  E1.50 INCH       YANKTON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT FROM PREVIOUS EVENT.

&&

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
IRIS SYSTEM