Alert archive / Iowa / Blizzard Watches in 2016
Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Sioux Falls, SD
NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this blizzard watch at Jan 31, 2016, 3:23 AM CST for 4 states. It took effect at Feb 2, 2016, 3:00 AM CST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 31, 2016, 3:23 AM CST (09:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 2, 2016, 3:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2016, 2:08 PM CST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Sioux Falls, SD
All 31 counties
Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD
The radar
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1627 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
435 WWUS43 KFSD 310923 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014- SDZ067-070-071-311730- /O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/ LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON- DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK... ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN... SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY... IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA... ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG... VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT... ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
6 follow-up statements
282 WWUS43 KFSD 311802 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1202 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014- SDZ067-070-071-010215- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/ LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON- DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK... ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN... SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY... IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA... ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG... VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT... ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 1202 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
634 WWUS43 KFSD 312151 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 351 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014- SDZ067-070-071-010600- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/ LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON- DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK... ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN... SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY... IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA... ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG... VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT... ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 351 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
086 WWUS43 KFSD 010549 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1149 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014- SDZ067-070-071-011200- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/ LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON- DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK... ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN... SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY... IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA... ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG... VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT... ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 1149 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
852 WWUS43 KFSD 010938 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-011745- /O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD... ARNOLDS PARK...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY... SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE... SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD... PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD... ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS..ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ MNZ080-SDZ066-068-069-011745- /O.EXB.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ MURRAY-TURNER-BON HOMME-YANKTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLAYTON...FULDA...PARKER... CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...TYNDALL... SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR...YANKTON 338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL MAY CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ IAZ001-MNZ081-089-090-098-SDZ067-070-011745- /O.EXT.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ LYON IA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON... LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG... VERMILLION 338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL MAY CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
688 WWUS43 KFSD 011651 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 IAZ001-MNZ081-089-090-020100- /O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ /O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ LYON IA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON... LAKEFIELD 1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-020100- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD... ARNOLDS PARK...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY... SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE... SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD... PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD... ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ MNZ071-072-097-SDZ056-061-062-065-020100- /O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-PIPESTONE-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-HUTCHINSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON... IVANHOE...MARSHALL...PIPESTONE...FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA... BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS...PARKSTON...FREEMAN... MENNO...TRIPP 1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ MNZ080-098-SDZ066>070-020100- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ MURRAY-ROCK-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLAYTON...FULDA...LUVERNE...PARKER... CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON... LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD... AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION 1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
767 WWUS43 KFSD 012008 WSWFSD URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 MNZ071-072-080-097-098-SDZ056-061-062-065>070-020415- /O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ /O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-PIPESTONE-ROCK-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA- HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON... IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE... FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE... SIOUX FALLS...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER... CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON... LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD... AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION 208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 4 INCHES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ON THE WEST AND NORTH SIDES OF THE SNOW BAND...GENERALLY FROM CLOSE TO PARKSTON SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTWARD TO IVANHOE AND MARSHALL MINNESOTA. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 8 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WILL RESIDE FROM YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA...TO SLAYTON MINNESOTA. IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS BAND...SIOUX FALLS AND VICINITY IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE ABOUT 6 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE COUNTRY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-NEZ013-014- SDZ071-020415- /O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/ LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-DIXON-DAKOTA- UNION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD... LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK... ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN... SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY... IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN... SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT... ALCESTER...JEFFERSON 208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE IOWA. REMEMBER AMOUNTS CAN VARY OR SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO INSTABILITY. * WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE COUNTRY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Jan 30, 10:00 PM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 10:00 PM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1000 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT AND ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...HOWEVER THE LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY THUS FAR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 6 PM. BY EARLY EVENING HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA...LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MOVING INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...BUT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WE MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE DECENT ENOUGH...WE COULD EVEN SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ENTIRELY SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES WET BULB. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST THAT THE COOLER AIR IS A LITTLE DELAYED...ARRIVING AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND THE I90 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...DO NOT THINK SKIES WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 PERHAPS A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS AS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT OCCURS ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND WEAK RIDGE ACTS TO DECOUPLE WINDS TO SOME DEGREE. IDEALLY COULD GET A FEW RANDOM WINDOWS OF BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SNOWMELT OF PAST FEW DAYS AND AT LEAST SOME CLOUD OR WIND...HAVE NOT TAKEN TEMPS AS COOL AS OTHERWISE MIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS FALLING PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START A COOLER AGEOSTROPHIC FEED. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST...AND WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL ADVECTION REGIME...WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE A BIT ON THE WARMING SIDE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...WITH MAINLY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MOST SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL 25 DEGREES LONGITUDE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OPERATIONAL GFS IS FAST BUT WELL WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE...AND JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE ECMWF. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE TERRIFIC SPREADS IN QPF...DISTRIBUTED EVENLY OVER ABOUT AN INCH RANGE...AND THIS IS AFTER THROWING OUT THE MAX AND MIN VALUES. NAM IS HORRIFIC SOUTHERLY OUTLIER GIVING ALMOST NO QPF TO THE CWA. DIFFERENCES SUCH AS THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MORE DENSE DATA NET OF THE CONUS LATER TOMORROW. OTHER WILD CARD IS CERTAINLY CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WAVE TRACK...AND MODELS ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD SE IA. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT...THIS COULD ACT TO DIVERT THE INFLOW INTO FRONTAL BAND FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME ON TUESDAY...AND WOULD IMPACT AMOUNTS NEGATIVELY...ESPECIALLY HEADING NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE HEAVIEST BAND LOCATION. CONSENSUS OF REGIONAL FORECASTERS WAS TO ALIGN FOR THE TIME TOWARD AN ECMWF/SLOWER THAN GFS CONSENSUS. THIS WILL LOOK TO TRACK THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST IOWA...CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH DRY LOWER LAYERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN WILL SEE A SLOW ENCROACHMENT OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE SLOWED UP THE APPROACH OF PRECIP A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECAST. AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM KANSAS TO IOWA ON TUESDAY...BAND OF INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS...WITH BEST OF THE 750- 650 HPA FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF DRY SLOT ACROSS MID IOWA...HUGGING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNAL OF INSTABILITY OF GREAT DEGREE ABOVE OUR LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH BRINGS INTO SOME QUESTION JUST HOW HEAVY OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR AS PEAK OF FORCING SETTLES IN FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIFT IF FAIRLY HIGH IN THE PROFILE AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH STRONG AND BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVEL PROFILE...CONCERN OF FRACTURING AND IMPACT ON SNOW RATIO. FOR NOW...THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHERE IN THE 14-17/1 RANGE AT PEAK PERFORMANCE. END RESULT OF FRONTAL AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND SNOW RATIO YIELDS A BAND OF 6 TO 10 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF PONCA NEBRASKA TO ESTHERVILLE IOWA LINE. FORECAST MAY BE A BIT ON THE HEAVIER SIDE TO NORTHWEST OF BAND...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT DWELL ON DETAILS YET. SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR...MODELS HAVE GROSSLY OVERESTIMATED WINDS WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS INDICATION THIS TIME OF ENOUGH OF A COLDER LOW LEVEL SURGE TO ENHANCE MIXING OF THE STRONGER OFF SURFACE GRADIENT...SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL EASILY MAKE THE GUSTY 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF A KMML TO KYKN LINE. CORRESPONDING TO THE TIMING OF SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL /LATER MORNING TO EARLY EVENING/ ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA... VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY DEGRADED. UNCERTAINTY DOES DICTATE HOLDING OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE...BUT IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...WOULD BE LOOKING CERTAINLY AT A WATCH IN AND AROUND NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MAKE NO MISTAKE...EVEN LESS SNOWFALL WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE A VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT. SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...BUT 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL THEN BE LACKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE SOME CHAOS IN TIMING OF WIND TRANSITIONS AND CLOUD INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH PRECLUDES LATCHING ON TO ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND RIDING ALONG WITH ANY MUCH WARMER OR COOLER SUGGESTIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR BUT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME. HOWEVER...AFTER THE TIME WHEN THE STRONGER REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY WINDOW...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND A BREEZY AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EVEN COLDER WEEKEND AHEAD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN KFSD AND KSUX AT 03Z WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY PRIMARILY AS LIQUID, AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BETWEEN AND TO THE EAST. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY VFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CHAPMAN AVIATION...MG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 30, 3:44 AM CST, 23 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 MNZ071-SDZ038>040-052>060-310945- LINCOLN MN-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE- MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON- 344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO IOWA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR LOCAL FORECAST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098- NEZ013-014-SDZ050-061>071-310945- LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE- BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON- PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX- DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD- UNION- 344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WOULD BE MINOR....TOTALLING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCHE OF LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO IOWA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SNOWFALL CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR LOCAL FORECAST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
Nearby
Blizzard Watches in Iowa, 2016Blizzard Watches in South Dakota, 2016Blizzard Watches in Minnesota, 2016Every blizzard watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.