Alert archive / Iowa / Blizzard Watches in 2016

Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

January 31, 20164 states

NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this blizzard watch at Jan 31, 2016, 3:23 AM CST for 4 states. It took effect at Feb 2, 2016, 3:00 AM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 31, 2016, 3:23 AM CST (09:23 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 2, 2016, 3:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 1, 2016, 2:08 PM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Sioux Falls, SD
All 31 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-01-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-01-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1627 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

435 
WWUS43 KFSD 310923
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ067-070-071-311730-
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON-
DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...
ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...
VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY
  EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
  EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
  ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL FALL
  INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
282 
WWUS43 KFSD 311802
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1202 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ067-070-071-010215-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON-
DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...
ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...
VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
1202 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY 
  AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF 
  TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE 
  EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING 
  VISIBILITIES. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
634 
WWUS43 KFSD 312151
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ067-070-071-010600-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON-
DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...
ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...
VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
351 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY
  MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL
  REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE 
  EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING
  VISIBILITIES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
086 
WWUS43 KFSD 010549
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ067-070-071-011200-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-DIXON-
DAKOTA-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...
ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...
VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
1149 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY 
  MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE 
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL 
  REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE 
  EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING 
  VISIBILITIES. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
852 
WWUS43 KFSD 010938
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-011745-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...
ARNOLDS PARK...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...
SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
  MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY
  WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN
  NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
  THE SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS..ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
  AREAS.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

MNZ080-SDZ066-068-069-011745-
/O.EXB.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
MURRAY-TURNER-BON HOMME-YANKTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLAYTON...FULDA...PARKER...
CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...TYNDALL...
SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR...YANKTON
338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND
  MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
  SNOWFALL MAY CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ081-089-090-098-SDZ067-070-011745-
/O.EXT.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
LYON IA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-LINCOLN SD-CLAY SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...
LAKEFIELD...LUVERNE...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...
VERMILLION
338 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY
  AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
  TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
  TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
  SNOWFALL MAY CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
688 
WWUS43 KFSD 011651
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

IAZ001-MNZ081-089-090-020100-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
LYON IA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...
LAKEFIELD
1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING...AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
  WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE 
  LIKELY. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-020100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...
ARNOLDS PARK...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...
SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ056-061-062-065-020100-
/O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-PIPESTONE-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-HUTCHINSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...
IVANHOE...MARSHALL...PIPESTONE...FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA...
BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...
MENNO...TRIPP
1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING...AND COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
  WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

MNZ080-098-SDZ066>070-020100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
MURRAY-ROCK-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLAYTON...FULDA...LUVERNE...PARKER...
CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...
LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION
1051 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME HEAVY
  AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE 
  DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT 
  WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
767 
WWUS43 KFSD 012008
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

MNZ071-072-080-097-098-SDZ056-061-062-065>070-020415-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-PIPESTONE-ROCK-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-
HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...
IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...
FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...
SIOUX FALLS...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...
CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...
LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION
208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON
  TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
  TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 8 INCHES.
  THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 4 INCHES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ON THE
  WEST AND NORTH SIDES OF THE SNOW BAND...GENERALLY FROM CLOSE TO
  PARKSTON SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTWARD TO IVANHOE AND MARSHALL
  MINNESOTA. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 8 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY
  MORE WILL RESIDE FROM YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA...TO SLAYTON
  MINNESOTA. IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS BAND...SIOUX FALLS AND VICINITY
  IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE ABOUT 6 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS
  TIME.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE COUNTRY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-NEZ013-014-
SDZ071-020415-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.160202T0900Z-160203T1000Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-DIXON-DAKOTA-
UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
208 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT 
  TIMES ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW ARE
  CURRENTLY PROJECTED AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE IOWA.
  REMEMBER AMOUNTS CAN VARY OR SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO INSTABILITY.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL 
  OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR WHITE 
  OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE COUNTRY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Jan 30, 10:00 PM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 10:00 PM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1000 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT AND ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...HOWEVER THE LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
QUITE DRY THUS FAR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 6 PM.

BY EARLY EVENING HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA...LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET MOVING INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING...THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...BUT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WE MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH
THE RAIN. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE DECENT ENOUGH...WE COULD EVEN
SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ENTIRELY SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES WET BULB.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST THAT THE COOLER AIR IS A
LITTLE DELAYED...ARRIVING AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. NOT A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
TENTHS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA AND THE I90 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND A LITTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...DO NOT THINK SKIES
WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

PERHAPS A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS AS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT OCCURS ON
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WEAK RIDGE ACTS TO DECOUPLE WINDS TO SOME
DEGREE. IDEALLY COULD GET A FEW RANDOM WINDOWS OF BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SNOWMELT OF PAST FEW DAYS AND AT LEAST
SOME CLOUD OR WIND...HAVE NOT TAKEN TEMPS AS COOL AS OTHERWISE MIGHT.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS FALLING PRESSURES IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START A COOLER AGEOSTROPHIC FEED. THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST...AND WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL
ADVECTION REGIME...WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE A BIT ON THE WARMING SIDE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...WITH MAINLY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MOST SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL 25 DEGREES LONGITUDE OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST.  OPERATIONAL GFS IS FAST BUT WELL WITHIN ITS
ENSEMBLE...AND JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE ECMWF. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
TERRIFIC SPREADS IN QPF...DISTRIBUTED EVENLY OVER ABOUT AN INCH
RANGE...AND THIS IS AFTER THROWING OUT THE MAX AND MIN VALUES.
NAM IS HORRIFIC SOUTHERLY OUTLIER GIVING ALMOST NO QPF TO THE CWA.
DIFFERENCES SUCH AS THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MORE DENSE DATA NET OF THE CONUS LATER TOMORROW.
OTHER WILD CARD IS CERTAINLY CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WAVE TRACK...AND MODELS ARE TRYING
TO PICK UP ON SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD
SE IA. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT...THIS COULD ACT TO DIVERT THE
INFLOW INTO FRONTAL BAND FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME ON
TUESDAY...AND WOULD IMPACT AMOUNTS NEGATIVELY...ESPECIALLY HEADING
NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE HEAVIEST BAND LOCATION. CONSENSUS OF
REGIONAL FORECASTERS WAS TO ALIGN FOR THE TIME TOWARD AN
ECMWF/SLOWER THAN GFS CONSENSUS. THIS WILL LOOK TO TRACK THE BEST
FRONTAL FORCING FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST IOWA...CLIPPING
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.

SNOWFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH DRY LOWER LAYERS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...THEN WILL SEE A SLOW ENCROACHMENT OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
CWA. HAVE SLOWED UP THE APPROACH OF PRECIP A BIT FROM EARLIER
FORECAST. AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM KANSAS TO IOWA ON TUESDAY...BAND
OF INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS...WITH BEST OF THE 750-
650 HPA FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF DRY SLOT
ACROSS MID IOWA...HUGGING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNAL OF INSTABILITY OF GREAT
DEGREE ABOVE OUR LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH BRINGS INTO
SOME QUESTION JUST HOW HEAVY OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR AS PEAK OF
FORCING SETTLES IN FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIFT IF FAIRLY HIGH IN THE PROFILE AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH STRONG AND BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVEL PROFILE...CONCERN OF FRACTURING AND IMPACT ON SNOW RATIO.
FOR NOW...THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHERE IN THE 14-17/1
RANGE AT PEAK PERFORMANCE. END RESULT OF FRONTAL AND UPPER DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND SNOW RATIO YIELDS A BAND OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCA NEBRASKA TO ESTHERVILLE IOWA LINE. FORECAST MAY
BE A BIT ON THE HEAVIER SIDE TO NORTHWEST OF BAND...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO NOT DWELL ON DETAILS YET.

SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR...MODELS HAVE GROSSLY OVERESTIMATED WINDS
WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS INDICATION
THIS TIME OF ENOUGH OF A COLDER LOW LEVEL SURGE TO ENHANCE MIXING OF
THE STRONGER OFF SURFACE GRADIENT...SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL EASILY
MAKE THE GUSTY 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF A KMML TO
KYKN LINE.  CORRESPONDING TO THE TIMING OF SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
/LATER MORNING TO EARLY EVENING/ ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...
VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY DEGRADED.

UNCERTAINTY DOES DICTATE HOLDING OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE...BUT IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...WOULD BE
LOOKING CERTAINLY AT A WATCH IN AND AROUND NORTHWEST IOWA...AND
WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
MAKE NO MISTAKE...EVEN LESS SNOWFALL WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE
A VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...BUT 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL THEN BE LACKING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMEROUS
WEAK IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE SOME CHAOS IN TIMING OF
WIND TRANSITIONS AND CLOUD INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
PRECLUDES LATCHING ON TO ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND RIDING ALONG
WITH ANY MUCH WARMER OR COOLER SUGGESTIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BUT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME.  HOWEVER...AFTER THE TIME WHEN
THE STRONGER REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY WINDOW...IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND A BREEZY AND WHAT LOOKS
TO BE AN EVEN COLDER WEEKEND AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN KFSD AND KSUX AT 03Z WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY PRIMARILY AS LIQUID, AND WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BETWEEN
AND TO THE EAST. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY VFR FOR ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 30, 3:44 AM CST, 23 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

MNZ071-SDZ038>040-052>060-310945-
LINCOLN MN-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-
MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-
344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD
SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR LOCAL FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ050-061>071-310945-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-
DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-
UNION-
344 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WOULD BE
MINOR....TOTALLING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCHE OF LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD
SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY SNOWFALL CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR LOCAL
FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

Nearby

Blizzard Watches in Iowa, 2016Blizzard Watches in South Dakota, 2016Blizzard Watches in Minnesota, 2016Every blizzard watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.