Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 27, 2016

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Sep 27, 2016, 4:21 PM MST. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 27, 2016, 4:21 PM MST (23:21 UTC)
Expired: Sep 27, 2016, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1744 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 27, 2:43 PM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 27, 2:43 PM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
243 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system currently over southwestern
Arizona will gradually move northward through Thursday. Expect
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Arizona through Thursday then decreasing on Friday. Dry air is
forecast to move in over the weekend. Near normal temperatures
will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor loop shows the weak upper low centered over
southwestern AZ this afternoon and we are finally seeing some
widely scattered and light convection developing in Apache county
this afternoon. The upper low to gradually move northward across
Arizona through Thursday. For tonight we have scaled back precip
chances as most recent models show southeast flow to persist in a
rather stable airmass.

Wednesday through Thursday night...Winds aloft to become
southerly on Wednesday with a decent moisture plume moving
northward into AZ. We are expecting greater precip coverage
Wednesday and Thursday due to the moisture increase. The best
chance for thunderstorms should be from the afternoon into the
early evening hours in response to peak daytime heating and
instability.

Friday through Tuesday. Progs in good agreement showing dry air
moving in from the west on Friday. Kept the slight chance of
showers in for this transition period. From Friday night onward
dry weather is expected with occasional high clouds streaming
across the northland.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...look for Widely scattered -SHRA
 and isolated -tsra through 12Z weds...then scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
spreading northward through the day. MVFR conditions possible in
heavier storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 27, 2:32 PM MST, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             3 N SHOW LOW            34.28N 110.04W
09/27/2016  E0.50 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600245

041

Local storm report, Sep 27, 3:46 PM MST, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             3 N SHOW LOW            34.28N 110.04W
09/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600246

BAK

Local storm report, Sep 27, 3:56 PM MST, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             7 N SHOW LOW            34.34N 110.04W
09/27/2016  M0.75 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600247

BAK

Special weather statement, Sep 27, 4:21 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
421 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

AZZ013-016-272345-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY AZ-
421 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MST...

AT 420 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF ARIPINE...OR 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHOW LOW...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 11016 3438 11024 3453 11055 3472 11034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 130DEG 41KT 3454 11034

MAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 27, 3:24 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	36 min
Sep 27, 4:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	49 min
Sep 27, 4:49 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	26 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.