Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 9, 2016

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 9, 2016, 3:19 PM MST. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 9, 2016, 3:19 PM MST (22:19 UTC)
Expired: Aug 9, 2016, 4:00 PM MST
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -206 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1620 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 9, 9:15 AM MST, 6 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 9:15 AM MST, 6 hours 4 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical moisture surge will cause increasing
chances for thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall from today
through Wednesday evening. Expect decreasing precipitation chances
on Thursday. Much drier and warmer conditions are expected starting
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast through tonight is in good shape. We will be reviewing
todays 12z model data to  decide whether the Flash Flood Watch
should be expanded northward for Wednesday.

.Prev discussion 347 am...An ongoing moisture surge is likely to lead
to an active monsoon period over the next 24 to 48 hrs, and we have
a Flash Flood Watch out for most of the southern portions of our
forecast area for later today and into Wednesday.

From Thursday onward...Chances for showers are expected to
decrease under a drying flow pattern. Warming daytime temperatures
are likely to climb back to near daily normals as high pressure
builds into the region from Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect increasing activity aft 18Z-
20Z as moisture increases from south to north, best chances from the
Mogollon Rim southward. Chance of storms continues overnight mainly
south of KGCN-KSOW line. MVFR and isold IFR in the stronger storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch from late
tonight through Wednesday evening FOR AZZ013-014-016-017.

Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday evening
FOR AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...DL / KD
AVIATION...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 9, 11:34 AM MST, 3 hours 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1134 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-100700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1134 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE AND TWO...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SEE THE WATCH ON OUR
WEBSITE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THIS WATCH IS DUE TO A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 9, 10:06 AM MST, 5 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SE CARRIZO            33.90N 110.17W
07/30/2016                   GILA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4-5 FEET OF FLOW WITH DEBRIS AT THE HIGHWAY
            73 BRIDGE IN CEDAR CREEK.

&&

NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Aug 9, 1:51 PM MST, 1 hour 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
151 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             2 WSW STAR VALLEY       34.24N 111.29W
08/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       GILA               AZ   PUBLIC

            RIM CLUB GOLF COURSE NEAR PAYSON REPORTED
            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

RB

Special weather statement, Aug 9, 3:19 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
319 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

AZZ015-038-092300-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS AZ-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-
319 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM MST...

AT 319 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF JUNIPINE RESORT...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEDONA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KACHINA VILLAGE...GARLAND'S OAK CREEK LODGE...MOUNTAINAIRE...
JUNIPINE RESORT...WEST FORK OF OAK CREEK...STERLING FISH HATCHERY...
CAVE SPRINGS CAMPGROUND AND PINE FLAT CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 11191 3498 11199 3517 11174 3502 11160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 232DEG 11KT 3498 11188

MCS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 9, 1:23 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	22 min
Aug 9, 2:28 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Aug 9, 3:46 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Aug 9, 4:20 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	25 min
Aug 9, 4:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.