Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 5, 2016, 2:22 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 5, 2016, 2:22 PM MST (21:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 5, 2016, 2:45 PM MST
- In force
- 23 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 274 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 843 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 5, 10:09 AM MST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 10:09 AM MST, 4 hours 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1009 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoon moisture in place across northern Arizona will cause scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the region today. Beginning Saturday, a slow drying trend will cause decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .UPDATE/DISCUSSION...A subtle short wave identifiable in WV imagery southwest of Phoenix appears to be at least partially forcing the convection over northeast Maricopa County and moving into southeast Yavapai right now. The latest few runs of the HRRR take this cluster of storms and move them up into northeastern Arizona by this afternoon. Give the recent rains and the saturated soils in the Navajo/Hopi nations, we've opted to add most of northeastern Arizona to a Flash Flood Watch through 11 pm MST. Precip chances and weather grids have been fine tuned as well. Updated products have been sent. && .PREV DISCUSSION /403 AM MST/...Cloud cover is a bit more thin this morning as compared to yesterday due to slightly less vigorous convection overnight. GPS derived moisture measurements and model data indicate that the atmosphere remains quite wet, with precipitable water ranging between 1.0 to 1.25 inches across the region. In addition, model soundings indicate that there may be a little more instability today as compared to yesterday. This is due to slight mid-level cooling and better daytime surface heating. As a result, expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today. Tightening gradients ahead of a West Coast trough will result in a faster storm motion than we have seen over the last several days. In general, individual storms are expected to move from the southwest to northeast around 10 knots or so. Deep layer bulk shear will remain quite low today, expect perhaps near the Arizona/Utah border where shear may meet or exceed 30 knots. Generally speaking, flash flooding continues to be the primary threat from today's storms, with a greater potential for organized, severe storms in the far northern portions of the area. For the weekend...Atmospheric moisture and instability will be on the decrease as a West Coast trough causes a drier southwesterly wind to setup over northern Arizona. Precipitable Water is forecast to drop into the 1.0 to 0.75 inch range, which is more typical for this time of year. Mostly isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to begin first over higher terrain in the mid to late morning, before moving to the northeast into valley locations by the early afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks to be greater on Saturday than on Sunday. All in all, typical low to moderate grade monsoon activity is expected. For next week...Dry and stable conditions are forecast to lead to low grade monsoon activity on Monday and Tuesday. The best chances for showers are forecast near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Northern Arizona could see an increase in moisture around Wednesday of next week with the passage of a tropical system near the Baja California peninsula. With that said, confidence is low at this point. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...SCT SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD MVFR/IFR conditions across the area today moving north-northeast at 10-15 KTS ...storms decreasing in coverage and intensity after 03z. ISOLD/SCT -shra/-tsra will continue overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR AZZ005-009>011-039- 040. && PUBLIC...Taylor/RR AVIATION...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 5, 10:02 AM MST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1002 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-060730- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1002 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE PHOENIX AREA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT SOILS SATURATED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 10:27 AM MST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1027 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ008-018-037-051800- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ- 1027 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM MST... AT 1027 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HORSESHOE RESERVOIR...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SYCAMORE CREEK...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLOWING SPRINGS...EAST VERDE ESTATES...CHILDS POWER PLANT AND TONTO NATURAL BRIDGE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3404 11145 3409 11179 3440 11181 3434 11132 TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 200DEG 10KT 3415 11160 MOTTICE
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 2:22 PM MST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 222 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ008-037-052145- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 222 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST... AT 222 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF PAULDEN...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PAULDEN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3491 11262 3501 11244 3488 11230 3476 11254 TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 313DEG 10KT 3492 11249 MOTTICE
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 5:22 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila | 3 hr |
| Aug 5, 9:48 AM MST | Flash Flood Watch | FGZ | Apache, Coconino, Navajo | 10 hr |
| Aug 5, 10:27 AM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 33 min | |
| Aug 5, 10:49 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila | 3 hr |
| Aug 5, 12:54 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Navajo | 2 hr |
| Aug 5, 1:19 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
| Aug 5, 2:54 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 2 hr |
| Aug 5, 3:25 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Aug 5, 4:43 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Apache, Navajo | 6 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.