Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jan 31, 2016, 10:17 PM MST. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 31, 2016, 10:17 PM MST (05:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 31, 2016, 10:45 PM MST
- In force
- 28 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -25 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 890 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 74 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 260 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 387 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jan 31, 9:55 PM MST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:55 PM MST, 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 955 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND WINDY STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS...AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD ABOVE 6500 FEET. RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED BELOW 6500 FEET. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS FLAGSTAFF NOW, WINSLOW BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM, SHOW LOW BETWEEN 12 AND 1 AM AND WINDOW ROCK AROUND 2 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CHALLENGING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS A GUARANTEE. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. FOR EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, PLEASE CONSULT THESE WINTER WX PRODUCTS, OUR WEATHER STORY GRAPHICS, AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS VIA OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS - AGAIN CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD. VERY COLD, BUT DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GRADUALLY GETTING WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR DUE TO SN/RA WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW. ISOLATED EMBEDDED TS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LOWER ELEVATION MODERATE RAIN...BUT MAINLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 00Z TUE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY THIS EVENING...TO STRATIFORM TONIGHT...BACK TO SHOWERY ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008-009-018. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007- 011-015>017-039. && PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...SUK FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 3:50 PM MST, 6 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 350 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-011430- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 350 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT ARIZONA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET DUE TO SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET. CONSULT YOUR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF OR PHXWSWFGZ FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 FEET...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF ARIZONA. CLEARING MOVES IN RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 31, 5:52 PM MST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jan 31, 7:03 PM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
703 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0702 PM SNOW 3 NNW PARKS 35.30N 111.97W
01/31/2016 E1.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED 1 INCH OF SNOW SO FAR AT 7500 FEET.
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600115
CLMSpecial weather statement, Jan 31, 7:44 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 744 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 AZZ007-008-015-037-010315- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 744 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI AND CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MST... AT 743 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASH FORK...OR 28 MILES NORTH OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WILLIAMS...ASH FORK AND KAIBAB LAKE CAMPGROUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3505 11244 3511 11257 3567 11236 3545 11190 TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 212DEG 65KT 3517 11244 RR
Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:25 PM MST, 52 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jan 31, 10:17 PM MST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1017 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 AZZ015-010545- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 1017 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM MST... AT 1016 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLAGSTAFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FLAGSTAFF...KACHINA VILLAGE...AND DONEY PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3506 11169 3516 11178 3544 11153 3518 11128 TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 240DEG 65KT 3519 11159 RR
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 7:44 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 31 min | |
| Feb 1, 3:37 AM MST | Winter Storm Warning | FGZ | Apache, Navajo | 13 hr |
| Feb 1, 3:37 AM MST | Winter Weather Advisory | FGZ | Apache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai | 13 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.