Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

310 
WWUS55 KFGZ 132217
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
317 PM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

AZC005-007-017-132230-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-160913T2230Z/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
317 PM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST
FOR GILA...COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOREST LAKES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACK CANYON RIM CAMPGROUND AND GENTRY CAMPGROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 11081 3410 11090 3434 11073 3420 11054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 216DEG 39KT 3421 11070 

$$

RR

149 
WWUS55 KFGZ 132230
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

AZC005-007-017-132239-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-160913T2230Z/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
330 PM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA...COCONINO AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3405 11081 3410 11090 3434 11073 3420 11054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 216DEG 39KT 3421 11070 

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
242 PM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system passing through the western states will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona
through this evening. Windy conditions will also accompany this
storm, especially across the northwest half of the state. A drier
and cooler air mass will move in from Wednesday into the weekend
with near normal temperatures and only a slight chance of showers
over far eastern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were
being observed during the afternoon hours in response to a
vigorous upper low centered over the California/Nevada border.

For the remainder of the afternoon and overnight...The upper low
will continue to swing eastward across Nevada. The main impact
for northern Arizona will be southwest winds 20 to 30 mph gusting
to 45 into and scattered showers and storms through the early
evening hours. Deep-layer Wind shear values will be high enough
for some organized storms, though limited instability should lead
to only a slight chance of a severe storm or two, with hail to
quarter size the main threat. Any severe storms will occur around
the area of Payson eastward. After mid evening the winds should
quiet down and shower/storm activity end as the low shifts
eastward.

From Wednesday onward...forecast models show the trough axis
swinging eastward with a drier and cooler air mass moving across
northern Arizona. Look for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the Arizona/New Mexico border where some
moisture will linger. Otherwise, near normal temperatures, mainly
clear skies and light winds will set the stage for a very fall-
like period of weather. With the dry air mass in place, overnight
lows will be chilly, especially Thursday and Friday mornings. Lows
could dip down to near freezing for the usual cold spots above
6500 feet elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...for the 00Z package...SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts from
30-40 kts through sunset this evening. Strongest wind gusts from
KFLG northwest. Expect scattered TSRA through early this
evening...with the possibility of a few strong storms producing hail
and strong winds. Showers/storms diminishing by late
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening
for AZZ004>009-012-015.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

&&

.AVIATION...for the 00Z package...SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts from
30-40 kts through sunset this evening. Strongest wind gusts from
KFLG northwest. Expect scattered TSRA through early this
evening...with the possibility of a few strong storms producing hail
and strong winds. Showers/storms diminishing by late
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>009-012-015.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-140200-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
325 AM MST TUE SEP 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH OVER COCONINO COUNTY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SEE THE WIND ADVISORY AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS. IN
ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL IN
EXCESS OF QUARTER SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FEET ELEVATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.