Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 AM MST WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day
through Saturday, especially over the higher elevations. A drying
and warming trend is expected late in the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier and more stable northwesterly flow has
developed across the area behind the low pressure system from
Tuesday. Enough moisture still exists south of the Mogollon Rim that
any convection that initializes over higher terrain today may
develop into isolated storms when moving into this environment.
Otherwise, expect a much quieter day compared to yesterday.

Flow turns southwesterly Thursday and Friday, which may bring a bit
more moisture back north, especially over the eastern zones.

By Saturday and Sunday, high pressure begins to build into Arizona
from the west. Expect much drier and warmer conditions by late in
the weekend and into early next week.

These trends are covered and no updates are needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the TAF period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop near KGCN-KFLG-KSEZ-KPRC between 20z-24z
Wednesday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be
possible near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...TM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST WED AUG 24 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-250045-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
900 AM MST WED AUG 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST
STORMS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A
PRONOUNCED DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
254 PM MST WED AUG 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             2 W SEDONA              34.86N 111.83W
08/24/2016  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA-SIZED HAIL. LARGEST HAIL STONES
            WERE 0.75 INCHES.

&&

TM