Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

034 
WWUS55 KFGZ 012142
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
242 PM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

AZC005-007-025-012151-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160701T2200Z/
GILA AZ-YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
242 PM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GILA...EASTERN
YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3429 11164 3440 11166 3457 11137 3442 11125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 235DEG 27KT 3446 11142 

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather through Saturday with
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day. Starting
Sunday a drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring a downturn
in activity heading into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Skies continue to clear along a line extending from
Wickenburg to Page, with a broad shield of showers overspreading
the eastern portions of the state. Only minor changes to the
forecast have been made in the morning update, primarily to
reflect the best thunderstorm chances this afternoon across
Yavapai and central Coconino counties. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track as of this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was moving into Texas
during the morning hours. Southerly flow around the western edge
of the high will allow monsoon moisture to continue streaming into
northern Arizona. In addition, a weak shortwave trough over the
southwest will slip some mid level cooling over northern Arizona.

For today...Ample moisture will remain in place across northern
Arizona. West of a line extending from Prescott to Page morning
satellite imagery was showing some clearing with what looks like a
better potential for sunshine/heating. The combination of
moisture, cool air aloft and heating should help to develop some
decent instability. In addition, the flow aloft across this area
will be more organized than previous day. The result will be a
better chance for isolated severe storms. The main severe threat
appears to be quarter size hail with the strongest storms. Of
course, heavy rain along with localize flooding will be possible
with stronger storms. East of the Prescott to Page line mentioned
above quite a bit of cloud cover and rain cooled air. Showers and
storms are expected but will be more subdued across this area.

Starting Saturday and lasting into next week...A drying and
stabilizing west to southwest will develop. Enough moisture will
linger on Saturday for another round of scattered showers and
storms. The vertical wind profile suggests that there will be the
potential for an isolated severe storm or two on Saturday. Beyond
Saturday the drying and stabilizing trend will take hold with just
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Scattered to numerous SHRA east
of a KPAN-KCEZ line will move east through the day...with TSRA
developing aft 17Z west of that line. Stronger storms will produce
MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected today...with less coverage on Saturday. Any storms will
be capable of locally heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Storm
motion will be from the west to the east.

Sunday through Tuesday...Only a few isolated storms are expected
through the period...with generally fair weather as a drying
westerly flow develops across the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRC/McCollum
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-021200-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWEST
COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND LIFTING ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM THE
GRAND CANYON SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS REPLACING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS RETAINING CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.