Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

470 
WWUS55 KFGZ 252027
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
127 PM MST MON JUL 25 2016

AZC005-007-252037-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160725T2045Z/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-
127 PM MST MON JUL 25 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL GILA AND
SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR KOHLS RANCH HAS WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY.

THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. 

LAT...LON 3438 11100 3428 11097 3422 11121 3440 11125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 079DEG 11KT 3431 11112 

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms especially over the mountains. On
Wednesday dry air should move southward leading to an isolated storm
from I-40 northward. Elsewhere expect scattered storms to continue
from the Mogollon Rim region south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short term forecast is in good shape with no updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 423 AM..A subtropical high is positioned to the
east of Arizona and a subtropical low is positioned to the
southwest...both the clockwise and counter clockwise circulation
respectively are helping draw much deeper subtropical moisture
northward into Arizona with 1.5 inch PW creeping into southern parts
of the state with 1.0 inch PW moving north of I-40. Areas to the
north of I-40 will see thunderstorms however not as widespread south
of I-40 storm are forecast to be more widespread today. The
subtropical moisture is forecast to spread northward toward the Utah
border on Tuesday with storms becoming more widespread on Tuesday.
The main threat from these storms will be hail...strong gusty
winds...and localized heavy rain.

On Wednesday...The subtropical high shifts to the northwest of
Arizona...slowly bring drier air into northern Arizona primarily
to the north of I-40 with fewer storms. To the south moisture is
forecast to remain deep enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This pattern is forecast to persist through Friday.

Through the weekend...the subtropical high is forecast to move east
into New Mexico with a moist SE subtropical flow returning and
bringing deeper subtropical moisture back into northern Arizona by
Sunday. This moist pattern is forecast to continue into next week
with subtropical weather disturbances moving northwest across the
area helping to enhance afternoon and overnight thunderstorm
activity.
&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
will develop today...initially around 18Z over the higher terrain
and then spreading into the lower elevations after 21Z and into the
evening. Scattered MVFR and isolated IFR in heavy rain and small
hail, with gusty winds also possible near storm activity. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...41 / TC
AVIATION...jj

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
522 AM MST MON JUL 25 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-260615-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
522 AM MST MON JUL 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
STORMS BEING MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO FAR NORTHER ARIZONA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION...TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA
WITH DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING OVER
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.