Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 24, 2016, 3:24 PM MST for Gila County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 36 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 2016, 3:24 PM MST (22:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2016, 4:00 PM MST
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 3:45 PM MST | HAIL 1 | Whiteriver, AZ |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 121 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -529 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3004 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
302 WUUS55 KFGZ 242224 SVRFGZ AZC007-017-242300- /O.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0011.160724T2224Z-160724T2300Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 324 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA... SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... * UNTIL 400 PM MST * AT 324 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER FORT APACHE...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF SHOW LOW...AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WHITERIVER...FORT APACHE AND RAINBOW CITY. THIS INCLUDES STATE ROUTE 73 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 336 AND 341. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. && LAT...LON 3384 11012 3394 11003 3384 10993 3378 10997 TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 097DEG 8KT 3382 11000 $$ 41
2 follow-up statements
342 WWUS55 KFGZ 242248 SVSFGZ SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 348 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 AZC007-017-242300- /O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160724T2300Z/ GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ- 348 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EASTERN GILA AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES... AT 348 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT APACHE...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF SHOW LOW...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WHITERIVER...FORT APACHE AND RAINBOW CITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3384 11012 3394 11003 3384 10993 3378 10997 TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 097DEG 8KT 3383 11006 $$ 41
868
WWUS55 KFGZ 242255
SVSFGZ
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
355 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016
AZC007-017-242304-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160724T2300Z/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
355 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN GILA AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WHITE RIVER WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING
HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
LAT...LON 3384 11012 3394 11003 3384 10993 3378 10997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 097DEG 8KT 3383 11006
$$
41What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 24, 2:50 PM MST, 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 2:50 PM MST, 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 250 pM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona from south to north through Tuesday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. On Wednesday drier air should move areas north of Interstate 40 leading to only isolated storm chances there. Elsewhere, expected scattered convective activity to continue. && .DISCUSSION....We have seen several strong storms this afternoon along and east of the Mogollon rim and Kaibab Plateau. Upper level winds are pushing storm anvils to the northeast while outflow winds are converging with sw flow below H7 this afternoon. We are feeling good that scattered storm coverage to further develop across the rest the Mogollon rim this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows convective inhibition to continue over much of Yavapai and nrn Gila counties into this evening and not sure how far storms will develop away from the rim. The excessive heat warning for the Grand Canyon Below 4000 feet will expire at 8 pm this evening. Monday and Tuesday - Subtropical moisture to move northward through Tuesday due to light easterly then southerly mid level wind trajectories. Moderate to high grade monsoon activity is expected across northern Arizona both days with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Wednesday - Thursday -The mid level high pressure cell to become centered over SW Utah. A drier northerly flow is forecast to develop and kill thunderstorm chances for areas north of I-40. Elsewhere the typical monsoon pattern of scattered daytime and isolated overnight convective activity to continue. Friday - Sunday - Operational model spread develops on Friday as the ECMWF continues to show the high center over sw utah with the dry flow into nrn AZ. The GFS develops moist easterly flow over all of nrn az. We will go with climo storm chances for now. && .AVIATION....For the 00Z package...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop and move across northern AZ this afternoon and evening. Conditions to remain mostly VFR with local MVFR/IFR in +RA possible. Gusty winds up to 35 kts also possible near any storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ006. && PUBLIC...DL AVIATION...SUK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 24, 7:14 AM MST, 8 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 714 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-250300- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 714 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO FAR NORTHER ARIZONA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 24, 1:12 PM MST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 112 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 AZZ015-242100- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ- 112 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM MST... AT 110 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DONEY PARK...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLAGSTAFF...COSNINO...FERNWOOD...WINONA...DONEY PARK...TIMBERLINE... DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF...FLAGSTAFF MALL...HUTCHISON ACRES... WALNUT CANYON NATIONAL MONUMENT...FORT VALLEY... LITTLE ELDEN SPRING HORSE CAMP...LOWER LAKE MARY... WALNUT CANYON VISITORS CENTER AND CANYON VISTA CAMPGROUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3536 11148 3521 11139 3506 11164 3530 11178 TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 063DEG 7KT 3526 11152
Special weather statement, Jul 24, 1:32 PM MST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 132 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 AZZ016-018-242115- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ- 132 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GILA...SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO AND WESTERN NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MST... AT 132 PM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED NEAR FOREST LAKES. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOREST LAKES...CANYON CREEK FISH HATCHERY... BLACK CANYON RIM CAMPGROUND AND CANYON POINT CAMPGROUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3426 11074 3430 11084 3440 11080 3437 11074 TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 009DEG 1KT 3439 11078 41
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 3:33 AM MST | Excessive Heat Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 15 hr |
| Jul 24, 1:12 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 48 min | |
| Jul 24, 1:32 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 43 min | |
| Jul 24, 1:49 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 26 min |
| Jul 24, 2:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila | 26 min |
| Jul 24, 2:24 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Jul 24, 3:59 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 3 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.