Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

875 
WWUS85 KFGZ 161058
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
358 AM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

AZZ104-106-107-170300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0010.160716T1800Z-160717T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
358 AM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...KAIBAB PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON AND COCONINO
  PLATEAU AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY.

* 20 FOOT WIND...SOUTHWEST AT 18 TO 25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
  TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 TO 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CAN CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

41

277 
WWUS85 KFGZ 170251
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
751 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016


AZZ104-106-107-170400-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160717T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
751 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
AND THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through Saturday
for most of northern Arizona. Exceptions to this will be in the
White Mountains today, followed by the White Mountains and Chuska
Mountains on Sunday. In these areas, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible. Beginning Sunday, shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms forecast across all of northern Arizona
from Monday through the latter half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry, breezy and warm conditions to continue through
Saturday, with a gradual return of moisture to northern Arizona
beginning on Sunday. Current grids on track...no short term updates
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 AM MST/...For today and Saturday...An elongated
region of high pressure remains in place across the southwest United
States.
As a result, a dry westerly flow will persist keeping the majority
of northern Arizona warm and dry. An exception to this will be in
the White Mountains today, followed by the White Mountains and
the Chuska Mountains on Sunday. In these areas, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible.

From Sunday onward...Moisture returns to northern Arizona as a
ridge of high pressure strengthens and shifts to the center of
the country. A moist southerly wind is forecast to develop,
resulting in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. On
Sunday, thunderstorm activity is expected to be mostly isolated in
nature, with greater activity forecast in the White Mountains.
Beginning Monday, expect a return to more typical monsoonal shower
and thunderstorm activity as ample moisture spreads northward
across the region. Surface dew points are forecast to rise into
the mid 40's and mid 50's, and remain within that range through
the end of the work week. In general, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast across all of northern
Arizona each day through at least the latter half of the work
week.

Instability and wind shear will be quite limited, so flash
flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. With that
said, gusty winds and small hail will be likely with the stronger
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Westerly breezes are expected to continue through the
afternoon hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near critical fire weather conditions will exist
Saturday for dry and windy conditions...mainly near the Arizona-Utah
border. Isolated showers will be possible near the White Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Increasing moisture will allow for
improving chances of precipitation to return to the fire district.
Temperatures near daily normals can be expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR/BAK
AVIATION...ML
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff