Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
859 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms with cooler than normal daytime
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a weak low
pressure system moves into Arizona. A drying and warming trend may
start early next week, before increasing moisture and storm
chances return by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have generally decreased in coverage and
intensity this evening across northern Arizona. We have made small
downward adjustments in precip chances for the remainder of
tonight, though slight chances will certainly persist overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A trough of low pressure is
dropping south through the Great Basin this afternoon while deep
monsoon moisture (1-2 inch Pwat) resides over Arizona. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms produced hail and localized minor
flooding across northern Arizona today. The low will provide
enough lift for some storms to continue through the night
tonight...especially northwest of a Bagdad-Flagstaff-Four Corners
line.

Saturday is expected to be active again as the trough moves over
the state. Sunday will see a decrease in storm coverage.

Drier and warmer weather is forecast Monday into Tuesday with the
best chance of storms near the AZ/NM line. Later Tuesday into
Thursday, a trough over the west coast could pull deeper moisture
back north into the area increasing our thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06z package...Isolated thunderstorms and showers to
continue overnight. Monsoon moisture will remain in place so look
for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Away from storms, light winds with scattered to broken
ceilings 5-7 kft above ground level. Periods of MVFR-IFR
conditions in stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD/MAS
AVIATION...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-270230-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
348 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
MAINLY SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SATURDAY...THEN A DECREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.