Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

897 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022315
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

AZC005-030015-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-160903T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
415 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST FOR
COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 413 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HOUSE ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&

LAT...LON 3689 11175 3677 11164 3655 11203 3677 11217

$$

MCS

730 
WGUS75 KFGZ 030009
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
509 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

AZC005-030018-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-160903T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
509 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM
MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES AND BE
CAUTIOUS FOR AREAS OF PONDED WATER.

LAT...LON 3689 11175 3677 11164 3655 11203 3677 11217

$$

MCS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 AM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms across northern Arizona again today. A drying trend
will start Saturday with breezy southwest winds through the first
half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...One more day of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon before we dry out just in time for the Labor Day
weekend. We updated the shower and thunderstorm coverage for today
to even out the chances for convective activity from the Mogollon
Rim northward. Otherwise the forecast drying trend looks good.
Storm motion today will be towards the northeast. Breezy
southwesterly fall winds will develop starting on Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /334 AM MST/... Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop today. This looks to be the best chance
for storms for at least a few days as flow shifts to a drier
orientation this weekend. Specifically, a Pacific trough will move
inland and across the Mountain West this weekend, with a resulting
dry southwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation chances are forecast
to drop significantly, with mostly locations <10% through at least
Monday. In addition, breezy southwest winds will develop most
afternoons during the 3 to 7 day forecast, with the gustier days
likely to be Sunday and Monday. Daytime temperatures will be near
normal through the period.

Model consensus is a bit muddled for Tuesday and beyond with
regard to any tropical on monsoonal moisture, but feel the prudent
approach is to gradually re-introduce at least slight chances for
showers mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered to numerous storms are
forecast to develop over higher terrain before moving to the
northeast at around 10 to 15 knots. Good chances for storms are
forecast at KFLG, KPRC, KINW and KSEZ. KPGA and KINW will have
lesser chances for thunderstorms, but will have a good shot at gusty
outflow winds from distance storms during the mid to late afternoon.
Activity should diminish Friday evening around sunset. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
607 AM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-030645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
607 AM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NWS FLAGSTAFF OFFICE AT 1-888-745-1637.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
111 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

AZZ006-007-022045-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY AZ-COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-
111 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
MST...

AT 110 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUSAYAN...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESERT VIEW AT
THE GRAND CANYON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TUSAYAN AROUND 135 PM MST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE TEN-X CAMPGROUND.

LAT...LON 3565 11245 3581 11256 3607 11219 3582 11200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 239DEG 30KT 3584 11228

RB